{"id":302021,"date":"2024-10-16T08:44:32","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T12:44:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=302021"},"modified":"2024-10-16T09:18:28","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T13:18:28","slug":"dodgers-vs-mets-prop-picks-game-3-nlcs-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/dodgers-vs-mets-prop-picks-game-3-nlcs-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Dodgers vs. Mets NLCS Game 3 prop picks: Back top of New York&#8217;s lineup, fade Walker Buehler"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>We&#8217;re off to the Big Apple for Game 3 of the NLCS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Tonight&#8217;s prop picks centre on fading Los Angeles Dodgers starter Walker Buehler, who I expect to struggle against&nbsp;the top of the New York Mets&#8217; lineup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best Dodgers vs. Mets prop picks for Wednesday night&#8217;s game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dodgers vs. Mets prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>MLB markets:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb\">Click Here<\/a>&nbsp;| MLB stats:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\">Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Buehler under 14.5 outs (+108)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:97473\">Embed: #97473<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dodgers gave Walker a long leash after he surrendered six second-inning runs in Game 3 of the NLDS. But I don&#8217;t expect them to make that same decision again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets Game 4 on Thursday and has yet to reach 65 pitches in any playoff game. So a heavy Game 3 workload for the bullpen could really put strain on Los Angeles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And Buehler has topped this number in six consecutive starts. But the Dodgers bullpen has been trustworthy enough this postseason that mixing and matching seems like a better play as we reach the back half of this game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buehler has one strikeout over his last two starts (10 innings). While both&nbsp;outings came against the San Diego Padres, who had MLB&#8217;s lowest K rate, it&#8217;s still concerning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Buehler can&#8217;t produce Ks with runners on, he&#8217;ll run the risk of a big inning. We saw that in the NLDS and frequently throughout the regular season, leading to a 5.38 ERA (5.54 FIP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Mets haven&#8217;t struck out at a particularly high clip in the playoffs and sport an 18.4% K rate through two NLCS games (only the Padres had a lower mark in the regular season).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New York had a top-10 walk rate in the regular season and is getting on via free passes at an even higher rate in the playoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Simply put, I hate this matchup for Buehler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> The Mets have an NL-best .328 OBP in the playoffs, averaging 5.0 runs per game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Francisco Lindor over 0.5 runs (-106):<\/strong> Backing New York&#8217;s lineup starts at the top with the club&#8217;s all-star leadoff hitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:97475\">Embed: #97475<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lindor has eight runs in nine playoff games, scoring in six different contests.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the start of September, he has crossed the plate in an incredible 17 of his last 25 games.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On a per-game level, Lindor scored at nearly the same rate as Shohei Ohtani, who led the majors with 134 runs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lindor has gotten on base at a .372 clip this postseason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mark Vientos over 1.5 total bases (+150):<\/strong> The 24-year-old has 25 total bases in nine playoff games, clearing this number six times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:97477\">Embed: #97477<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s led to a .676 slugging percentage and 1.086 OPS.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buehler got pumped by both lefty (.890 OPS) and righty (.833 OPS) hitters this season. The league-average OPS for hitters was .711.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vientos has a lot of swing and miss in his game. But Buehler&#8217;s inability to miss bats \u2014 he posted a career-low K rate \u2014 offsets that concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pete Alonso over 0.5 RBI (+185)<\/strong>: Lindor and Vientos are followed by Brandon Nimmo and slugger Pete Alonso.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:97476\">Embed: #97476<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nimmo has been a high OBP guy throughout his career and has reached base in all but one postseason game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That trio provides a nice foundation in front of Alonso, who has remained a power threat out of the cleanup spot this October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alonso is slugging .586 with a .996 OPS, three homers and six RBI. The first baseman has five hits in 14 career at-bats versus Buehler, homering four times and driving in eight runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 8:00 a.m. ET 10\/16\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;re off to the Big Apple for Game 3 of the NLCS. The pregame narrative: Tonight&#8217;s prop picks centre on fading Los Angeles Dodgers starter Walker Buehler, who I expect to struggle against&nbsp;the top of the New York Mets&#8217; lineup. Check out the best Dodgers vs. Mets prop picks for Wednesday night&#8217;s game. Dodgers vs. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":302029,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130,10,155],"class_list":["post-302021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-betting","tag-mlb-props"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Dodgers vs. Mets prop picks: NLCS Game 3 | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Dodgers vs. Mets prop picks for Oct. 16. 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