{"id":301250,"date":"2024-10-11T11:05:34","date_gmt":"2024-10-11T15:05:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=301250"},"modified":"2024-10-11T11:05:35","modified_gmt":"2024-10-11T15:05:35","slug":"padres-vs-dodgers-prop-picks-game-5-nlds-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/padres-vs-dodgers-prop-picks-game-5-nlds-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Padres vs. Dodgers Game 5 NLDS prop picks: Back Tatis and Arraez, fade Darvish in elimination game"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mookie Betts are featured in my top prop picks for tonight&#8217;s winner-take-all game between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> With a berth in the NLCS on the line, I also have plays on Yu Darvish and Luis Arraez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks for Game 5 of their NLDS matchup on October 11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>MLB markets:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb\">Click Here<\/a>&nbsp;| MLB stats:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\">Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Darvish under 4.5 Ks (-150)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:97117\">Embed: #97117<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite how well Darvish pitched in Game 2 \u2014 throwing seven innings of one-run ball \u2014 the right-hander wasn\u2019t able to top this number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And there\u2019s next to no chance he\u2019s sniffing the seventh inning again tonight. So Darvish should have significantly fewer opportunities to get to five strikeouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if Darvish is dealing, the Dodgers have several powerful left-handed bats that can set the Padres up for a platoon advantage by bringing in a southpaw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The likely shorter outing is the biggest reason I\u2019m fading him. But the 38-year-old isn\u2019t the same swing-and-miss arm he used to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Darvish can still punch batters out but he posted the lowest K rate of his career. It marked the fourth consecutive season his K% declined. His hard-hit rate was the highest since Baseball Savant started tracking in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Los Angeles\u2019 pitching staff has faced serious questions but its offence remains potent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dodgers have scored five-plus runs in three of the four NLDS games and hit seven homers with a league-average strikeout rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That follows a regular season that saw them place No. 1 in the majors in wRC+ and ISO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Darvish is 1-3 versus a 4.5 K line against the Dodgers this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Tatis over 1.5 total bases (+102):<\/strong> At this point, I\u2019ll ride this until it doesn\u2019t hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:97118\">Embed: #97118<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tatis has been an absolute machine, clearing 1.5 total bases in all six postseason games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is an excellent number following two consecutive games that I recommended it at -117.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The dynamic outfielder is hitting .500 with a 1.759 OPS in the postseason, going yard four times and racking up seven extra-base hits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Arraez over 0.5 runs (+123):<\/strong> The Padres&#8217; leadoff man has only gotten on base once in the past two games but cashed this in six straight before that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:97121\">Embed: #97121<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 27 postseason at-bats, he has only struck once, so nearly all of his plate appearances are ending with the ball put in play. That doesn&#8217;t guarantee he&#8217;ll get on base (.222 OBP in the NLDS) but it doesn&#8217;t hurt either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Arraez hits in front of Tatis, while Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill occupy the No. 4 and 5 spots in this dangerous lineup. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Arraez can get on, he&#8217;ll have a great chance to cross the plate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Betts over 0.5 runs (+100)<\/strong>: Los Angeles&#8217; No. 2 hitter has four runs in as many games, scoring in all but one of these NLDS matchups. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:97122\">Embed: #97122<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s provided a pair of those runs with homers, recording multi-hit games in consecutive contests. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Freddie Freeman is hurting but is expected to play. That means Betts will have the former MVP plus fellow run producers Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy hitting behind him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both teams have relentless lineups and I&#8217;m expecting plenty of scoring again tonight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET 10\/11\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mookie Betts are featured in my top prop picks for tonight&#8217;s winner-take-all game between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. The pregame narrative: With a berth in the NLCS on the line, I also have plays on Yu Darvish and Luis Arraez. Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":301287,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130,10,155],"class_list":["post-301250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-betting","tag-mlb-props"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks: Game 5, NLDS | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks for Oct. 11. 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