{"id":301106,"date":"2024-10-10T12:29:51","date_gmt":"2024-10-10T16:29:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=301106"},"modified":"2024-10-10T12:29:51","modified_gmt":"2024-10-10T16:29:51","slug":"mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-10-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-10-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB playoff prop bets Oct. 10: Fade Aaron Judge vs. Royals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Both ALDS matchups could wrap up tonight, as we’ll see a pair of Game 4s played in Detroit and Kansas City.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pregame narrative<\/strong>: In the first matchup, I like Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter to take advantage of his notable righty\/lefty platoon split. Later on, I’m tailing one Yankees player (Gerrit Cole) and fading another (Aaron Judge).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

MLB Markets: Click Here<\/a> | MLB Stats: Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best bet: Cole over 4.5 outs (+100)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #97019<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the playoffs roll around, every MLB team operates with a much shorter leash on its starting pitchers. You have to be aware of that when playing any pitching props. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This line would look laughably low for Cole during the regular season, but that only illustrates my point about how things are different in October. Even so, I’m on the over for a few reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first is that Cole almost<\/em> went over the mark last time out against the Royals despite a rocky outing (5.0 innings, seven hits, four runs, four Ks). Cole clearly didn’t have his best stuff but he still almost made it happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the final two months of the regular season, we saw Cole flash his best stuff several times. He posted a 2.25 ERA and a .503 opponent OPS over his final 10 regular season outings<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cole’s 9.4 K\/9 this year is his lowest since 2017 (back when he was in Pittsburgh), but it’s still a solid mark. If he makes it through five innings tonight, I think he can squeeze out five Ks, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Royals had the third-lowest K rate in the majors this year, but Cole hasn’t typically struggled to strike them out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 180 plate appearances against the Royals’ current lineup, Cole has tallied 57 strikeouts (31.7% K rate).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat<\/strong>: Cole has averaged 5.7 Ks per start this year and cashed this line in 12 of 18 outings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Carpenter over 1.5 bases (+170)<\/strong>: Carpenter was one of MLB’s top hitters against right-handed pitching this season, and with that in mind, this seems like a great price to back him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #97027<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his young career, Carpenter’s OPS against righties (.897) is more than 300 points better than his mark against lefties (.588). And he’s been particularly menacing against righties this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carpenter batted .305 with a .994 OPS against right-handers during the regular season, which equated to a 176 wRC+. Facing righties, that was the fifth-highest wRC+ in the majors (ahead of players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Gunnar Henderson and Yordan Alvarez).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the postseason, Carpenter hasn’t gone over 1.5 bases in any of his three starts. But he did clobber an improbable pinch-hit homer in ALDS Game 2, taking Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase deep for the win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Judge under 1.5 bases (-129)<\/strong>: For the second time in three seasons, Judge paced the majors in home runs, OPS and some other highly impressive offensive stats. He’s not a guy you want to fade on this market very often.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #97026<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’ll do it tonight though as Judge faces Royals starter Michael Wacha, who has somehow had the mighty slugger’s number in the past. Against Wacha, Judge is 1-for-20 with 12 strikeouts and three walks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far in this series, Judge is 1-for-11 with five Ks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Facing Wacha in one of the least homer-friendly parks in the league, I expect Judge to fall silent once again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 10\/10\/2024<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Both ALDS matchups could wrap up tonight, as we’ll see a pair of Game 4s played in Detroit and Kansas City. The pregame narrative: In the first matchup, I like Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter to take advantage of his notable righty\/lefty platoon split. Later on, I’m tailing one Yankees player (Gerrit Cole) and fading another […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":301149,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-301106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMLB prop bets Oct. 10: Playoff picks, predictions & odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 10. 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