{"id":300597,"date":"2024-10-08T11:18:04","date_gmt":"2024-10-08T15:18:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=300597"},"modified":"2024-10-08T11:18:05","modified_gmt":"2024-10-08T15:18:05","slug":"phillies-vs-mets-picks-nlds-game-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/phillies-vs-mets-picks-nlds-game-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 3 picks: Bet on Kyle Schwarber and the over"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets meet for Game 3 of the NLDS as the series shifts to Queens. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Kyle Schwarber opened this series with a bang and looks like a great value to score a run tonight at Citi Field. I&#8217;m also backing the over on a modest game total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Phillies vs. Mets picks for Game 3 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Phillies vs. Mets picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full MLB postseason betting markets: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\">Click here<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Schwarber over 0.5 runs (+105)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Schwarber homered in the very first inning of this series, reminding everyone about the outsized power he wields from the leadoff spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You can&#8217;t bank on someone cashing a run prop all on their own, though, so this pick is fuelled by what I expect to be a team effort from the Phillies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After Schwarber, Philly typically follows with Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos (in that order). And all three of those guys have strong numbers against Mets starter Sean Manaea:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Turner: 5-for-16, HR<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Harper: 4-for-11, HR, two 2B<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Castellanos: 6-for-16, 3 HR, 2B<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If Schwarber can find a way on base, I like the chances that someone behind him can bring him around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lefty-on-lefty matchups are typically undesirable for hitters, but Schwarber bucks that trend. He batted .300 with a .407 on-base percentage against LHPs this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And this prop doesn&#8217;t even require Schwarber to get on with a hit. The NL walks leader (106) can use his watchful eye to reach base, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Schwarber is 2-for-6 with a home run against Manaea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> During the regular season, Schwarber scored in 79 of 150 games (52.7%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Over 7 runs (-112):<\/strong> Given that I like an offensive-minded player prop as my best bet, it shouldn&#8217;t be a surprise that I&#8217;m riding with the over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Phillies and Mets have cleared this total in 12 of their 15 matchups \u2014 including both playoff games \u2014 while averaging 9.9 total runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Against New York this season, Nola has been both excellent (four-hit shutout) and atrocious (six runs over 4.1 innings). The Mets have seen him a ton over the years and accrued a .444 SLG against him in 243 at-bats, so I think they can chip in at least a couple of runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for the Phillies&#8217; offence, they&#8217;ve scored 10 runs in 16.2 innings against Manaea this year. All three of Manaea&#8217;s starts against Philly went over this run total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET 10\/08\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets meet for Game 3 of the NLDS as the series shifts to Queens. The pregame narrative: Kyle Schwarber opened this series with a bang and looks like a great value to score a run tonight at Citi Field. I&#8217;m also backing the over on a modest game [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":300552,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-300597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Phillies vs. Mets picks: Game 3, NLDS | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Phillies vs. Mets picks for Oct. 8. 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