{"id":299868,"date":"2024-10-04T13:54:10","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T17:54:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=299868"},"modified":"2024-10-04T13:54:12","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T17:54:12","slug":"mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB playoff prop bets Oct. 5: Back Padres&#8217; Cease and Arraez in series opener vs. Dodgers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The MLB playoffs resume Saturday with all four LDS matchups getting underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: Shohei Ohtani makes his postseason debut but it&#8217;s two San Diego Padres players who I&#8217;m targeting on the prop market. I also have a play on New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for October 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights\">MLB Markets:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb\">Click Here<\/a>&nbsp;| MLB Stats:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\">Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights\"><strong>Best bet: Cease over 4.5 Ks (-143)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights\"><a href=\"cacheembed:96436\">Embed: #96436<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights\">On the surface, I don&#8217;t love the price. But I do like it on this especially light number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Padres right-hander never&nbsp;sees a line this low. This is the postseason, of course, against the best offence in MLB&nbsp;(No. 1 in wRC+) and Cease struggles with control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With a fully rested bullpen, it&#8217;s unlikely&nbsp;he works too deep against this powerful Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. But Cease can punch out a side and clear this&nbsp;number in a short outing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cease is an elite strikeout artist. He finished fifth in total punchouts and tied for third in strikeout rate (29.4 K%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his debut season with the Padres, he topped 200-plus strikeouts for the fourth consecutive year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As rested as the Padres&#8217; bullpen will be, it won&#8217;t be as rested as Cease, who hasn&#8217;t pitched since Sept. 25. He has thrown well throughout his career with longer layoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On six-plus days of rest:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>3.55 ERA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.215 BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1.19 WHIP<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>11.2 K\/9 rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Those are all better numbers than what he&#8217;s produced on normal rest and five days off between starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He was a mixed bag in two starts versus the Dodgers this season but averaged five Ks per outing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Cease recorded five-plus strikeouts in 28 of his 33 starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-fa134a48-a478-432b-95e0-66881f0d337b\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\"><strong>Arraez over 0.5 runs (+135)<\/strong>: This is big value for a leadoff hitter who doesn&#8217;t strike out and hits in front of several potent bats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\"><a href=\"cacheembed:96438\">Embed: #96438<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\">Arraez scored in both games of the wild-card series and 11 of 21 starts in September when he batted .340 and got on base at a .367 clip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dodgers are starting righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto and have a bullpen that will primarily feature right-handers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Arraez fares significantly better versus righties. The left-handed hitter batted .333 with a .362 OBP against RHPs compared to marks of .271 and .310 versus southpaws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The four players likely to hit directly behind Arraez (Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill) all posted an OPS greater than .815 since the start of September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cole over 5.5 Ks (-114)<\/strong>: The Kansas City Royals are notoriously hard to retire on strikes and both Baltimore Orioles starters went under this number in the wild-card series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:96437\">Embed: #96437<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for Cole, he posted his lowest K rate since 2017 when he was with the Pittsburgh Pirates. That all points to fading him, but this is a low enough bar that I&#8217;m willing to bite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cole was 10-7 against this line in 17 starts, finishing with a 25.4 K% that was comfortably above the league-average strikeout rate for starters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He missed two-plus months to start the season and struggled through July before coming on strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>June\/July (7 starts)<\/strong>: 5.40 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, .277 BA, 2.31 HR\/9, 24.5 K%<br><strong>Aug\/Sept: (10 starts)<\/strong>: 2.25 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .182 BA, 0.30 HR\/9, 26.0 K%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The big-game pitcher worked six-plus innings in six of his final eight outings. He has topped this number in 12 of 14 playoff starts since 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 10\/04\/2024<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The MLB playoffs resume Saturday with all four LDS matchups getting underway. The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani makes his postseason debut but it&#8217;s two San Diego Padres players who I&#8217;m targeting on the prop market. I also have a play on New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":299894,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130,10,155],"class_list":["post-299868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-betting","tag-mlb-props"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets Oct. 5: Playoff picks, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 5. Baseball betting odds, predictions and analysis for Saturday&#039;s MLB postseason games.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MLB prop bets Oct. 5: Playoff picks, predictions &amp; odds | NSB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 5. Baseball betting odds, predictions and analysis for Saturday&#039;s MLB postseason games.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Boost\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-04T17:54:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-04T17:54:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/10\/dylancease_oct42024.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1220\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"801\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Chris Toman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Chris_Toman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Chris Toman\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024\/\",\"name\":\"MLB prop bets Oct. 5: Playoff picks, predictions & odds | NSB\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-10-04T17:54:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-10-04T17:54:12+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/2f8cbf42e64238b5258fcbce92ea6132\"},\"description\":\"Check out our best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 5. Baseball betting odds, predictions and analysis for Saturday's MLB postseason games.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/\",\"name\":\"The Boost\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/2f8cbf42e64238b5258fcbce92ea6132\",\"name\":\"Chris Toman\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7755.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7755.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Chris Toman\"},\"description\":\"Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Chris_Toman\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/author\/chris-tomannorthstargaming-ca\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"MLB prop bets Oct. 5: Playoff picks, predictions & odds | NSB","description":"Check out our best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 5. Baseball betting odds, predictions and analysis for Saturday's MLB postseason games.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"MLB prop bets Oct. 5: Playoff picks, predictions & odds | NSB","og_description":"Check out our best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 5. Baseball betting odds, predictions and analysis for Saturday's MLB postseason games.","og_url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024\/","og_site_name":"The Boost","article_published_time":"2024-10-04T17:54:10+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-10-04T17:54:12+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1220,"height":801,"url":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/10\/dylancease_oct42024.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Chris Toman","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@Chris_Toman","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Chris Toman","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024\/","url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024\/","name":"MLB prop bets Oct. 5: Playoff picks, predictions & odds | NSB","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website"},"datePublished":"2024-10-04T17:54:10+00:00","dateModified":"2024-10-04T17:54:12+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/2f8cbf42e64238b5258fcbce92ea6132"},"description":"Check out our best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 5. Baseball betting odds, predictions and analysis for Saturday's MLB postseason games.","inLanguage":"en-CA","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-5-2024\/"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website","url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/","name":"The Boost","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-CA"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/2f8cbf42e64238b5258fcbce92ea6132","name":"Chris Toman","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-CA","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7755.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7755.jpg","caption":"Chris Toman"},"description":"Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.","sameAs":["https:\/\/twitter.com\/Chris_Toman"],"url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/author\/chris-tomannorthstargaming-ca\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/299868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=299868"}],"version-history":[{"count":27,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/299868\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":299926,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/299868\/revisions\/299926"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/299894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=299868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=299868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=299868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}