{"id":299582,"date":"2024-10-02T12:54:39","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T16:54:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=299582"},"modified":"2024-10-02T12:54:39","modified_gmt":"2024-10-02T16:54:39","slug":"mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-2-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-playoff-prop-bets-october-2-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB playoff prop bets Oct. 2: Count on Musgrove and Lindor to stay hot"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I’m going back to a San Diego Padres starter for today’s best playoff prop pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pregame narrative<\/strong>: Michael King successfully blew past the over on his strikeout line Tuesday and I’m expecting Joe Musgrove to do the same. I’m also riding Francisco Lindor for the second straight day and have a play on Gunnar Henderson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for October 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

MLB Markets: Click Here<\/a> | MLB Stats: Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best bet: Musgrove over 5.5 Ks (-112)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #96241<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We just watched King absolutely carve up the Braves with 12 strikeouts. Padres pitchers collectively fanned 15 batters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Musgrove had a disappointing\u00a0start to the year following recovery from a shoulder injury that cut short his 2023 season, but he’s been every bit as good as King in the second half: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stat<\/strong><\/td>Musgrove<\/strong><\/td>King<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
ERA<\/td>2.15<\/td>2.15<\/td><\/tr>
FIP<\/td>2.59<\/td>2.69<\/td><\/tr>
WHIP<\/td>0.87<\/td>1.12<\/td><\/tr>
K%<\/td>29.1%<\/td>27.9%<\/td><\/tr>
BB%<\/td>4.1%<\/td>8.1%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That’s over a nine-game sample for Musgrove after missing two months and he was cooking before that, too, posting a 2.51 ERA in three May outings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atlanta has multiple regulars with above-average K rates and the team was top 10 in the majors in strikeouts against right-handed pitching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Padres have a rested bullpen after getting seven frames from King and don’t need to push Musgrove, but they don’t need to be ultra-conservative with him either up 1-0 in this series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat<\/strong>: Musgrove has cleared this line in seven of his last eight starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Lindor over 0.5 runs (+105)<\/strong>: Frankie Montas turned his season around with the Milwaukee Brewers but I don’t trust him in an elimination game against a strong lineup. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #96242<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Mets are dangerous, evident to anyone watching baseball the last two days. They scored eight runs in a come-from-behind win over Atlanta on Monday to clinch a playoff spot and then put up another eight yesterday to steal Game 1 on the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Montas is not a good bet to stay in the game long, meaning the Brewers will deploy their elite bullpen (NL-best 3.11 ERA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York tagged Aaron Ashby, who was fantastic out of the bullpen since August, and higher-leverage reliever Joel Payamps yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All that to say, I don’t expect Milwaukee’s pitching to be at its best today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I like this pick because Montas has struggled versus lefties (.866 OPS, 16 of his 24 homers allowed). Also, Lindor has pop and got on base at a good clip (.344) this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He hits well from both sides and scored a team-leading 107 runs. Lindor scored in 56.2% of his games, according to Team Rankings, good for the fourth-best mark in MLB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This play allows us to tap into some of the powerful bats that follow the Mets’ leadoff man. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Henderson over 1.5 total bases (+125)<\/strong>: Henderson is hitless in his last 12 at-bats but this is solid value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #96252<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

He only has two strikeouts over that stretch and will see a non-elite swing-and-miss arm in Kansas City Royals RHP Seth Lugo to start Game 2. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shortstop hit .349\/.418\/.593 over 21 September games before this mini-cold stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Henderson cleared this in just shy of 50% of his games (fifth in MLB) and obliterates right-handed pitching. The 23-year-old was eighth in MLB in wRC+ versus RHPs, clubbing 29 of his 37 homers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He raked at home (.909 OPS) and is the most trustworthy bat in the Baltimore Orioles lineup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 10\/02\/2024<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’m going back to a San Diego Padres starter for today’s best playoff prop pick. The pregame narrative: Michael King successfully blew past the over on his strikeout line Tuesday and I’m expecting Joe Musgrove to do the same. I’m also riding Francisco Lindor for the second straight day and have a play on Gunnar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":299612,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130,10,155],"class_list":["post-299582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-betting","tag-mlb-props"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMLB prop bets Oct. 2: Playoff picks, predictions & odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 2. 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