{"id":298657,"date":"2024-09-27T13:58:36","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T17:58:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=298657"},"modified":"2024-09-27T13:58:36","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T17:58:36","slug":"padres-vs-diamondbacks-prop-picks-sept-27-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/padres-vs-diamondbacks-prop-picks-sept-27-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Padres vs. Diamondbacks prop picks Sept. 27: Fade Kelly, bet on Tatis to score"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Arizona Diamondbacks are playing for their postseason lives this weekend in a series against the San Diego Padres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pregame narrative:<\/strong> San Diego has already clinched a wild-card spot and now enters a potential playoff series preview against Arizona. I’m fading Merrill Kelly’s outs prop tonight while backing Fernando Tatis Jr. to score a run. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out my Padres vs. Diamondbacks prop picks<\/a> for Sept. 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Padres vs. Diamondbacks prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

MLB markets: Click Here<\/a> | MLB stats: Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Bet<\/a>: Kelly under 17.5 outs (-115)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #95844<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This game will have a playoff atmosphere, especially on Arizona’s side. That might make you think the D-backs would push Kelly to go deep, but I actually think the opposite is more likely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s say tonight’s contest is within a couple of runs as it reaches the sixth inning. Wouldn’t Arizona rather play the matchup game with its bullpen rather than run Kelly through San Diego’s order a third time?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, Kelly exited his last start prematurely due to a calf cramp \u2014 after exiting early with a hamstring cramp two starts before that. So Arizona might not be able to push him even if it wanted to. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Diamondbacks should have their full array of relief options, too. They were off on Thursday and only used six total relievers over their three previous games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of Arizona’s relief arms have pitched more than once since Tuesday (and a handful haven’t pitched at all).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Padres’ active lineup has seen plenty of Kelly (173 plate appearances) and has a .404 SLG against him. Last season, Kelly went under this outs prop in both matchups against San Diego.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat:<\/strong> Kelly has gone under 17.5 outs in five of his past eight starts, averaging 16.3 outs in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tatis over 0.5 runs (-110)<\/a>:<\/strong> I tailed this prop bet yesterday and Tatis didn’t cash. But he did get on base twice. I’ll chalk that up to a good process and a poor result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #95866<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I still like the bet tonight, thanks in large part to Tatis’ strong track record against Kelly. The all-star outfielder is 8-for-22 (.364) against Kelly with four homers, a double and three walks. That equates to a 1.395 OPS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another home run from Tatis would be ideal because that cashes the bet instantly. But the Padres’ strong offence \u2014 fourth in wRC+ in the second half \u2014 should bring him around as long as he finds a way on base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tatis has a 1.030 OPS over his past 20 starts and has scored 16 runs in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picks<\/a> made at 1:30 p.m. ET 09\/27\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking to get started? Sign up here.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Arizona Diamondbacks are playing for their postseason lives this weekend in a series against the San Diego Padres. The pregame narrative: San Diego has already clinched a wild-card spot and now enters a potential playoff series preview against Arizona. I’m fading Merrill Kelly’s outs prop tonight while backing Fernando Tatis Jr. to score a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":298726,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-298657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPadres vs. Diamondbacks prop picks: Sept. 27 | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Padres vs. Diamondbacks prop picks for Sept. 27. 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