{"id":297514,"date":"2024-09-20T16:12:46","date_gmt":"2024-09-20T20:12:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=297514"},"modified":"2024-09-20T16:12:47","modified_gmt":"2024-09-20T20:12:47","slug":"jaguars-vs-bills-best-bets-nfl-week-3-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/jaguars-vs-bills-best-bets-nfl-week-3-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Jaguars vs. Bills Week 3 best bets and odds: Bet on Lawrence but take Buffalo ATS on Monday Night Football"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Buffalo Bills welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to town for the first leg of a Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> After two solid wins, I like Buffalo to cover a 5-point spread at home. Jacksonville&#8217;s offence has looked questionable, but the over on Trevor Lawrence&#8217;s completions prop should be within reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Jaguars vs. Bills best bets for the Week 3 matchup on Sept. 23.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jaguars vs. Bills best bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights\"><a href=\"cacheembed:95213\">Embed: #95213<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Go to full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football\/nfl\">NFL betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Bills -5 (-112)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:95212\">Embed: #95212<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After taking a pair of losses in the Sunshine State, the Jaguars head up to Western New York to face a Bills team that is off to a very encouraging start. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There were plenty of questions about what Buffalo&#8217;s offence would look like in the absence of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and the early returns have been great. With a harder lean on the run game, Buffalo cleared the 30-point threshold in Weeks 1 and 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m skeptical that Jacksonville can raise its offensive game to that level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Jaguars have scored just 30 <em>total<\/em> points through two weeks, and both of their losses have come by at least five. Trevor Lawrence hasn&#8217;t thrown an interception yet, but he&#8217;s completed just 51.0% of his passes and taken seven sacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep in mind that Buffalo&#8217;s home ATS record since the start of last year is merely 5-6. Pessimists might look at that and scoff about the team&#8217;s so-called home-field advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But in those 11 games, the Bills have a +12.3 average margin of victory. So another way to frame that 5-6 home ATS record would be to say they failed to meet sky-high expectations about half the time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A -5 spread is not a big ask. At that number, Buffalo would be 8-2-1 ATS at home since the start of last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bills do have a notable home-field advantage \u2014 as well as a three-day rest advantage \u2014 and I think that&#8217;ll help keep their early-season momentum rolling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Buffalo beat Miami last Thursday by 21 points. The week before that, Miami beat Jacksonville by three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lawrence over 21.5 pass completions (+105):<\/strong> Even though I&#8217;m fading the Jaguars, I could see Lawrence finding some positive regression in this game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:95217\">Embed: #95217<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He owns a 63.4% completion rate in his career and averaged 23.1 completions per game last year. After a couple of rough weeks, the Jags might dial up some safer pass plays to get Lawrence in a rhythm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering the Bills have allowed the fifth-fewest net yards per pass attempt (4.7), a flurry of checkdowns is something they&#8217;re probably willing to concede. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And since Buffalo has posted the seventh-lowest pressure rate so far (18.3%), Lawrence should have time to make the right read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lawrence cashed this over in 12 of 16 games last year. That includes a 315-yard performance \u2014 on 25-of-37 passing \u2014 against the Bills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET 09\/20\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Buffalo Bills welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to town for the first leg of a Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 3. The pregame narrative: After two solid wins, I like Buffalo to cover a 5-point spread at home. Jacksonville&#8217;s offence has looked questionable, but the over on Trevor Lawrence&#8217;s completions prop should be within [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":297530,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-297514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Jaguars vs. Bills best bets: Week 3 | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Jaguars vs. Bills best bets for Week 3. 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