{"id":297432,"date":"2024-09-20T12:02:52","date_gmt":"2024-09-20T16:02:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=297432"},"modified":"2024-09-20T12:02:53","modified_gmt":"2024-09-20T16:02:53","slug":"nfl-week-3-td-picks-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nfl-week-3-td-picks-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Top NFL Week 3 TD picks: Ride with Williams, Thielen to score"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I&#8217;m rolling with a trio of receivers for this week&#8217;s NFL TD picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: In the 1 p.m. window, I like DeVonta Smith to score against the red-hot New Orleans Saints. Later on, Jameson Williams is a logical play in the highest over\/under of the week &#8230; and Adam Thielen has some value if you&#8217;re bullish on the Carolina Panthers&#8217; quarterback change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best NFL Week 3 TD picks for the upcoming games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">NFL Week 3 TD picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights\"><strong>Go to full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football\/nfl\">NFL betting markets<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\"><strong>Best bet: Smith anytime TD (+110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:95145\">Embed: #95145<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Smith is accustomed to playing second to A.J. Brown when both of the Eagles&#8217; top wideouts are on the field. But Brown (hamstring) is sidelined right now, opening up a world of opportunities for Smith.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Through two weeks, look at how active Smith has been for Philly (data via Player Profiler and Rotowire):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>100% routes run<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>18 targets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>14 receptions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>160 receiving yards<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3 red zone targets (1 TD)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Smith has been targeted in the red zone in both weeks, and his 18 total targets blow the doors off everybody else. Brown, who is expected to be out, is second on the team with 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Saints have a tough defence overall, but they&#8217;re particularly tough against the run. Since the start of last season, New Orleans has the No. 1 defence in terms of rush EPA, per RBSDM.com.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Offensively, the Saints have put up 40-plus points in back-to-back games. If the Eagles want to keep pace, they&#8217;ll likely have to air it out at some point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And with that in mind, there&#8217;s no one I&#8217;d rather bet on to score a TD than Smith.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Smith&#8217;s 31.0% target share ranks seventh in the NFL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-fa134a48-a478-432b-95e0-66881f0d337b\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Williams anytime TD (+148):<\/strong> Jared Goff attempted 55 passes last week, which is well beyond what we should expect from him. But I could see the Lions quarterback having another (relatively) high pass volume on Sunday, and Williams should be heavily involved<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:95155\">Embed: #95155<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jamo is a livewire, ripping off a 40-plus-yard catch and a 13-plus-yard rush in consecutive weeks to start the season. His big-play ability is exciting enough to pique my interest, but his target volume is the trump card.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After seeing nine targets (one red zone) in Week 1, Williams had 11 targets (four RZ) in Week 2. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s taken longer than he or the Lions might&#8217;ve hoped, but the 2022 first-rounder finally has the trust and chemistry with Goff to ball out consistently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thielen anytime TD (+265):<\/strong> I&#8217;ll admit it. I&#8217;m probably <em>too<\/em> excited about Andy Dalton taking over for Bryce Young in Carolina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:95156\">Embed: #95156<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;ve already backed the Panthers +5.5 as one of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-week-3-best-bets-2024\">my best bets of the week<\/a>, and here I am calling my shot with an anytime TD scorer. Nobody on the Panthers has a receiving TD this year, mind you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But things can be different with Dalton. And Thielen is a familiar face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last September, in Dalton&#8217;s lone start for Carolina, Thielen had 11 catches (on 14 targets) for 145 yards and a touchdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Is this an &#8220;old guys still got it&#8221; game? I hope so, and I&#8217;ll take a flier on Thielen at this price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 09\/20\/2024<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m rolling with a trio of receivers for this week&#8217;s NFL TD picks. The pregame narrative: In the 1 p.m. window, I like DeVonta Smith to score against the red-hot New Orleans Saints. Later on, Jameson Williams is a logical play in the highest over\/under of the week &#8230; and Adam Thielen has some value [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":297450,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-297432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NFL Week 3 TD picks: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our NFL Week 3 TD picks. 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