{"id":297200,"date":"2024-09-18T14:35:18","date_gmt":"2024-09-18T18:35:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=297200"},"modified":"2024-09-18T14:35:19","modified_gmt":"2024-09-18T18:35:19","slug":"nfl-week-3-best-bets-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nfl-week-3-best-bets-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 3 best bets: With Andy Dalton starting, back the Panthers ATS"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Believe it or not, I&#8217;m backing Andy Dalton and (indirectly) fading C.J. Stroud this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> The Houston Texans face a revved-up Minnesota Vikings defence and I&#8217;m taking the under on the visitors&#8217; point total. I&#8217;m also backing the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers against the spread as road underdogs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out these NFL Week 3 best bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFL Week 3 best bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Go to full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football\/nfl\">NFL Week 3 betting markets<\/a><\/strong><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Texans under 23.5 points (+100)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:94987\">Embed: #94987<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Houston&#8217;s offence was humming to open Sunday Night Football last week. Stroud and the crew scored on four of their five possessions in the first half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second half was a different story, though. The Texans amassed just 89 yards and three points over eight drives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There&#8217;s a lot of name-brand talent in Houston, especially after Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon joined this year, but the team isn&#8217;t a lock to put up a mid-20s point total. On the road against the Vikings, this is a nice spot to fade Houston. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Minnesota has only allowed 23 total points through its first two games. Last week, the Vikes put the clamps on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers, nabbing a pick and forcing three fumbles (one recovered).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stroud&#8217;s home\/road splits are worth paying attention to as well:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Home (nine games): 305.1 pass yards\/game, 106.7 passer rating<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Road (eight games): 232.0 pass yards\/game, 94.6 passer rating<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>There are five newcomers in Minnesota&#8217;s starting defence. So far, that group has posted the fourth-best EPA (expected points added) per play among all defences, per RBSDM.com.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under Stroud, the Texans&#8217; offence has been notably less potent on the road. I think that trend will continue on Sunday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat: <\/strong>Houston has gone under 23.5 points in seven of Stroud&#8217;s 10 career road games. They averaged 19.5 PPG in those matchups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Packers +3 (-115):<\/strong> I like Green Bay as an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-week-3-underdog-picks-and-predictions-2024\">upset pick<\/a> this week, so you know I have to take the Packers with some points, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:94993\">Embed: #94993<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Everyone at Lambeau Field knew Green Bay would rely heavily on its run game last week, but it didn&#8217;t matter that the cards were on the table. The Packers rumbled over the Colts for a victory as three-point dogs thanks to a stout defence and 261 yards on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s not overlook Malik Willis, either, as the plug-in QB2 completed 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards and a score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now Willis faces his old team \u2014 the one that opted to recoup a seventh-round pick last month rather than rostering him \u2014 and it&#8217;s difficult to feel good about the winless Titans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tennessee is 2-9 against a -3 spread in Levis&#8217; 11 career starts. The team&#8217;s defence will be much more difficult to run against than Indy was, but its offence is as mistake-prone as the come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Levis and Co. committed five turnovers through the first two weeks. I expect Green Bay (entering with a league-high six takeaways) to build on that total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Panthers +5.5 (-122)<\/strong>:<\/strong> Ladies and gents, it&#8217;s Andy Dalton time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:94994\">Embed: #94994<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That might not seem like a thing to celebrate, but compared to another four quarters of Bryce Young, it really is. Through two games, Young has averaged 4.4 yards per attempt and posted a 0:3 TD-to-INT ratio. Carolina has looked lifeless with him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enter Dalton, who threw for 361 yards and two TDs in his lone start last season and has 163 career starts on his ledger. He&#8217;s no superstar, but he&#8217;s a big step in the right direction in terms of QB competence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Las Vegas Raiders inexplicably knocked off the Baltimore Ravens last week, but this is still number they haven&#8217;t made a habit of clearing. Since the start of last year, Las Vegas has failed to cover a -5.5 spread in 14 of 19 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carolina was a 7-point underdog at open and the line has come down a bit since the announcement that Dalton would start. According to Action Network&#8217;s Evan Abrams, underdogs of 6-plus points are 8-0 ATS this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>NFL picks made at 2:20 p.m. on 09\/18\/24.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Believe it or not, I&#8217;m backing Andy Dalton and (indirectly) fading C.J. Stroud this week. The pregame narrative: The Houston Texans face a revved-up Minnesota Vikings defence and I&#8217;m taking the under on the visitors&#8217; point total. I&#8217;m also backing the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers against the spread as road underdogs. Check out [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":297217,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-297200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NFL Week 3 best bets, predictions and lines | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our NFL Week 3 best bets. 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