{"id":297193,"date":"2024-09-18T12:42:37","date_gmt":"2024-09-18T16:42:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=297193"},"modified":"2024-09-18T12:42:38","modified_gmt":"2024-09-18T16:42:38","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-rangers-september-18","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-rangers-september-18\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers Sept. 18: Bowden Francis gives Toronto value on F5 moneyline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bowden Francis is back on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight as the team looks to even its series against the Texas Rangers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Through four Toronto\/Texas matchups this year, the home team is 4-0 &#8230; and they&#8217;ve all featured double-digit run totals. I&#8217;m bucking those trends a bit tonight by backing the road team on the first-five-inning market, along with the F5 under.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rangers on Sept. 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>MLB markets:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\">Click Here<\/a>\u00a0| MLB stats:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\">Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Blue Jays draw no bet &#8211; first five innings (-106)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My favourite Blue Jays bet at this point in the season? An F5 wager with Francis on the mound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The right-hander&#8217;s resurgence started as soon as he was given a full-time role in the rotation on Aug. 7. From that point forward, he has some dizzyingly good numbers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1.50 ERA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.101 opponent BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.375 opponent OPS<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>27% K rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3% BB rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto is 6-1-0 on the F5 moneyline in those outings, and it&#8217;s pretty easy to see why. Francis is consistently giving his side a chance to win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Backing the Blue Jays to win outright on the F5 moneyline carries a more compelling price (+125), but obviously with a bit more risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto is just 66-65-18 on the F5 moneyline this season, per ATS.io, which means it has only won outright in 44.3% of its games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I like the plus-money upside of this pick, but I also like that it&#8217;ll grade as a push rather than a loss if the Jays can&#8217;t provide Francis with ample run support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And in fairness, Rangers starter Cody Bradford (5-3, 3.97 ERA) has been excellent at home this season. He has a 2.57 ERA at Globe Life Field and the Rangers are 6-1-1 on the F5 moneyline in his eight home starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Toronto has outscored its opponents, 14-6, in the first five innings over Francis&#8217; past seven starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Under 4 runs &#8211; first five innings (+100):<\/strong> I&#8217;m not sure how else to spell out Francis&#8217; recent dominance, so just know that I expect him to shove again tonight. But he&#8217;s not the only pitcher who should keep scoring down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bradford, as mentioned, has been great at Globe Life. Opponents have just a .174 BA and a .315 SLG against him in Arlington. Those values are both nearly doubled on the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s also worth noting that Bradford is a lefty. Toronto has just an 88 wRC+ against lefties this year, which ranks 24th in MLB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The F5 under is 4-1 in Francis&#8217; past five starts \u2014 and only 10 total F5 runs have been scored in that span. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (+105):<\/strong> I&#8217;ve hyped up the pitching on both sides of this matchup, but let&#8217;s save room to praise Vladdy a bit, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last night, he went 3-for-5 with a double and two runs in a high-scoring series opener. Even though Bradford has fared well at home, I have a tough time staying away from plus-money odds on Guerrero to clear his bases prop against a lefty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Guerrero has a .565 SLG against lefties this year (10th in MLB), as well as a .991 OPS (eighth). He can crush against anyone, but he&#8217;s at his best in lefty-on-righty matchups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his past 45 games, Guerrero has gone over 1.5 bases 26 times (57.8%). He&#8217;s also 14-for-40 (.350) lifetime at Globe Life Field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 09\/18\/24.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bowden Francis is back on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight as the team looks to even its series against the Texas Rangers. The pregame narrative: Through four Toronto\/Texas matchups this year, the home team is 4-0 &#8230; and they&#8217;ve all featured double-digit run totals. I&#8217;m bucking those trends a bit tonight by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":297144,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-297193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks, odds vs. Rangers: Sept. 18 | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks and props vs. the Rangers for Sept. 18. 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