{"id":297010,"date":"2024-09-17T10:46:12","date_gmt":"2024-09-17T14:46:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=297010"},"modified":"2024-09-17T11:31:15","modified_gmt":"2024-09-17T15:31:15","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-rangers-september-17-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-rangers-september-17-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers Sept. 17: Alejandro Kirk has value on his RBI prop"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Toronto Blue Jays are down in the Lone Star State to begin a series against Nathan Eovaldi and the Texas Rangers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> A few Jays have hit Eovaldi particularly well, and I&#8217;m expecting more of the same tonight. I like the over on the game total along with prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rangers on Sept. 17.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>MLB markets:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/can01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.northstarbets.ca%2Fsportsbook%2Fsports-hub%2Fbaseball%2Fmlb&amp;data=05%7C02%7CSpencer.Closs%40northstargaming.ca%7C916f83cdf6b946d991c308dcbd828528%7Ca474078ecda74c118881901a044d2bef%7C0%7C0%7C638593615480015353%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=glJDBFkhC3LlPn8TV%2Fci0zsI%2FxcZyEJj%2FJpQPRib62o%3D&amp;reserved=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Click Here<\/a>&nbsp;| MLB stats:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/can01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.northstarbets.ca%2Fsportsbook%2Fnews%2Fstats&amp;data=05%7C02%7CSpencer.Closs%40northstargaming.ca%7C916f83cdf6b946d991c308dcbd828528%7Ca474078ecda74c118881901a044d2bef%7C0%7C0%7C638593615480025470%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=fm4gxgwnsPkAy6JgPBFxseYap85TjIRttY90lvM%2F9ZE%3D&amp;reserved=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 runs (+125)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:94846\">Embed: #94846<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Guerrero&#8217;s hitting has slowed down considerably in recent games, but he&#8217;s still one of the most dangerous players at the plate. And he commands plenty of respect from his opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The all-star first baseman has drawn seven walks in his past seven games \u2014 four of which were intentional. So although he&#8217;s only batting .167 in that span, his .355 on-base percentage is nothing to worry about. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Part of the reason I wanted to back Vladdy tonight is that he has strong numbers against Eovaldi in 21 previous plate appearances:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>7-for-20 (.350)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.550 SLG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Two extra-base hits<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>9.5% K rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>But this mini-slump of Vladdy&#8217;s at the plate, paired with the risk that Eovaldi and the Rangers will pitch around him, made me opt for a runs prop rather than a bases prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vladdy has scored in seven of his past 12 games, and he has 22 total runs over his past 29 games. He&#8217;s not in the optimal run-scoring spot as the Jays&#8217; No. 3 hitter, but I think he can find his way on base somehow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With that in mind, this price really jumps out to me as a value play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Since the start of August, Guerrero has scored in 20 of 38 games while posting a .429 OBP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+205):<\/strong> If Guerrero gets on base, Kirk is one of the prime candidates to drive him home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:94858\">Embed: #94858<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kirk, who routinely bats in the Nos. 4-6 spots in the Blue Jays lineup, has an RBI in nine of his past 18 starts. He&#8217;s also hit safely in each of his past 10 starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a small sample, Kirk has excellent numbers against Eovaldi, too. The catcher is 5-for-8 with a double, two walks and zero strikeouts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Over 7.5 runs (-117):<\/strong> Given that I&#8217;m backing two Blue Jays on the prop market, you might think I&#8217;d prefer simply taking the over on Toronto&#8217;s team total (over 3.5 runs at -115).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:94859\">Embed: #94859<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That seems like a reasonable bet as well, but I think the over on the game total provides some welcomed flexibility with Toronto&#8217;s Chris Bassitt projected to start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eleven of Bassitt&#8217;s past 14 outings have cleared this total and he has a 4.92 ERA in that span. So if Toronto&#8217;s bats are a little slow, perhaps the Rangers&#8217; bats can pick up the slack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for Eovaldi, 12 of his past 17 starts have cleared 7.5 runs \u2014 and he has a 4.15 ERA in that span. Most Jays hitters will be seeing him for the first time tonight, but Guerrero and Kirk can hopefully drive offence for the visiting side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 10:20 a.m. on 09\/17\/24.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays are down in the Lone Star State to begin a series against Nathan Eovaldi and the Texas Rangers. The pregame narrative: A few Jays have hit Eovaldi particularly well, and I&#8217;m expecting more of the same tonight. I like the over on the game total along with prop bets on Vladimir [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":297051,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-297010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks, odds vs. Rangers: Sept. 17 | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks and props vs. the Rangers for Sept. 17. 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