{"id":296284,"date":"2024-09-12T13:45:47","date_gmt":"2024-09-12T17:45:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=296284"},"modified":"2024-09-12T13:45:48","modified_gmt":"2024-09-12T17:45:48","slug":"red-sox-vs-yankees-prop-picks-september-12-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/red-sox-vs-yankees-prop-picks-september-12-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks Sept. 12: Bet on Duran to score, fade Soto"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees open a four-game set tonight at Yankee Stadium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pregame narrative:<\/strong> I’m fading Juan Soto tonight as the riskiest of my three plus-money prop bets in this matchup. On Boston’s side of things, I like Jarren Duran and Rob Refsnyder to do some damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks<\/a> for Sept. 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

MLB Markets: Click Here<\/a> | MLB Stats: Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Bet: Duran over 0.5 runs (+115)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #94392<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is Duran, who has 102 runs this season, getting such a juicy price to score for Boston from the leadoff spot tonight?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, he’s a lefty hitter who struggles against lefty pitching. And southpaw Nestor Cortes is typically at his best in left-on-left matchups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But this price is good enough to catch my interest. And upon taking a closer look, I think there’s some real value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Duran has scored in 76 of 144 games this year (52.8%), and he really turned up the heat in June to land his first all-star bid. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

From June 1 onward, Duran has scored in 50 of 86 games (58.1%) with a .310\/.362\/.560 slash line. He’s also an above-average hitter against LHPs in that span, posting a .283 BA and a 107 wRC+.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of a sudden, that platoon disadvantage doesn’t look so bleak, does it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Cortes was cruising in the run-up to this start, I might be a bit hesitant. But he’s been all over the map.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his past 10 outings, Cortes has a 5.16 ERA and an .803 opponent OPS. He’s had three shutout performances in that span, but also four games with five-plus runs allowed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Boston’s lineup has hit Cortes well, so if Duran can find a way on base, there should be someone capable of driving him home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat:<\/strong> The Red Sox are 25-for-79 (.316) with a .595 SLG against Cortes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Refsnyder over 1.5 bases (+155):<\/strong> Refsnyder isn’t an everyday player, but he should absolutely be in the lineup tonight \u2014 and he should crush.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #94395<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The journeyman outfielder is a menace against lefty pitching, especially over the past few years. Since 2022, he owns a .317\/.412\/.502 slash line and a 153 wRC+ against LHPs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it just so happens that Refsnyder has been a menace in this<\/em> particular matchup. He’s 8-for-16 with three doubles against Nestor Cortes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When he’s in the lineup, Refsnyder usually bats No. 3 for Boston. He should have plenty of chances to clear this total tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soto under 0.5 hits (+180):<\/strong> Soto is one of the best hitters in the game, but he’s arguably even better at drawing a walk. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #94396<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soto’s 18.0% walk rate is second behind only Aaron Judge in the majors. He’s led the majors in walks in three consecutive seasons and is only two off Judge’s league-best pace this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s never going to be a comfortable feeling betting on Soto to go hitless. But he’s done so in 12 of his past 24 games and is batting just .200 in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With a particularly keen eye, Soto could easily find his way on once or twice without even lifting the bat off his shoulder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 09\/12\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees open a four-game set tonight at Yankee Stadium. The pregame narrative: I’m fading Juan Soto tonight as the riskiest of my three plus-money prop bets in this matchup. On Boston’s side of things, I like Jarren Duran and Rob Refsnyder to do some damage. Check out my […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":296307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-296284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRed Sox vs. Yankees prop picks & predictions: Sept. 12 | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks for Sept. 12. 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