{"id":295530,"date":"2024-09-08T09:58:18","date_gmt":"2024-09-08T13:58:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=295530"},"modified":"2024-09-08T10:01:24","modified_gmt":"2024-09-08T14:01:24","slug":"astros-vs-diamondbacks-picks-sunday-night-baseball-september-8-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/astros-vs-diamondbacks-picks-sunday-night-baseball-september-8-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Astros vs. Diamondbacks Sunday Night Baseball picks: Expect Arizona to pounce on Verlander"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A pair of teams currently sitting in playoff position will battle in the desert on Sunday Night Baseball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros look to complete a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks in prime time. I’m skeptical of a sweep, though, and am fading Verlander while backing Ketel Marte and the D-backs to do damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out my Astros vs. Diamondbacks picks for Sunday Night Baseball on Sept. 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Astros vs. Diamondbacks picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

MLB markets: Click Here<\/a> | MLB stats: Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Bet<\/a>: Diamondbacks over 3.5 runs<\/strong> (-130)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #93906<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historically, Verlander has had a ton of success against current Diamondbacks hitters. The active lineup is just 15-for-94 (.160) against him with a whopping 35.6% K rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Numbers like that tell a certain story, but I don’t believe they tell the full<\/em> story. Because in 2024, the D-backs are at their best and Verlander is arguably at his worst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arizona is the highest-scoring offence in the majors, averaging 5.38 runs per game. The D-backs also lead the way in on-base percentage (.335) while ranking second in OPS (.768) and fourth in wRC+ (112).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2024 season hasn’t been nearly as rosy for Verlander.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 13 starts, the three-time Cy Young winner has a 4.73 FIP, a 20.5% K rate and a .747 opponent OPS. That’s the highest FIP ever for the 19-year veteran and his worst K rate and OPS since 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t mean to trash Verlander, who is undoubtedly on his way to Hall of Fame enshrinement when he calls it quits. But he’s clearly not the pitcher he once was, and this is a very attainable run total for an elite offence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arizona has gone over 3.5 runs in 35 of its past 43 games (81.40%), posting a .280\/.357\/.494 slash line in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat:<\/strong> Each of Verlander’s past five opponents has scored four-plus runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Verlander under 17.5 outs (-129)<\/a>:<\/strong> This pick pairs naturally with the over on the Diamondbacks’ team total. If they do well, Verlander shouldn’t stick around too long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #93907<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember, the Diamondbacks have an .851 OPS as a team since late July. To illustrate how crazy that is, consider that only 16 qualified hitters have a better season-long OPS this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Verlander has long been a throwback to a previous era, priding himself on working deep into games. But this year, he hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning since May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coming off a start in which he tossed 107 pitches over just 4.2 innings, I think he’s an easy fade tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marte over 0.5 runs (+115)<\/a>:<\/strong> Again, I’m targeting a pick that complements my other selections. Marte is Arizona’s leadoff man, which means he should have as good of a chance as anyone to score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #93908<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The all-star second baseman just returned from the injured list in this series and is hitless through two games. But that doesn’t take away from his excellent production throughout the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marte has scored 81 runs over 111 starts, cashing this bet 61 times (55.00%). The implied probability of this bet is only 46.51%, so there’s some nice value here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One downside is that Marte is just 2-for-16 with a double and a walk against Verlander. But as mentioned, I’m not relying on Verlander’s career numbers to influence Sunday’s predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET 09\/08\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking to get started? Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A pair of teams currently sitting in playoff position will battle in the desert on Sunday Night Baseball. The pregame narrative: Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros look to complete a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks in prime time. I’m skeptical of a sweep, though, and am fading Verlander while backing Ketel Marte and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":295536,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-295530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAstros vs. Diamondbacks picks: Sunday Night Baseball | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Astros vs. Diamondbacks picks for Sunday Night Baseball. 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