{"id":295316,"date":"2024-09-07T11:53:33","date_gmt":"2024-09-07T15:53:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=295316"},"modified":"2024-09-07T12:32:22","modified_gmt":"2024-09-07T16:32:22","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-september-7-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-september-7-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets Sept. 7: Back Torkelson and Gilbert"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;ve got three prop recommendations for Saturday&#8217;s MLB slate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: Logan Gilbert is going up against a plucky St. Louis Cardinals offence but he still should clear a modest strikeout total. Elsewhere, I&#8217;m backing Spencer Torkelson and fading Elly De La Cruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out the best <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">MLB prop bets<\/a> for Sept. 7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights wp-block-paragraph\">MLB Markets:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb\">Click Here<\/a>&nbsp;| MLB Stats:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\">Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Best bet<\/a>: Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts (-134)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:93859\">Embed: #93859<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My first thought when I saw Gilbert was playing the Cards was to fade his strikeout total. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">St. Louis has the 11th-lowest K rate in baseball (21.6%) and the fifth-lowest K rate against righties since the all-star break (19.9%). But then I looked to see what the line was and saw it at 5.5, which was much lower than I imagined. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gilbert is a bonafide stud and one of the better swing-and-miss arms out there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He&#8217;s cleared this line in six straight games and 10 of his last 11, ranking in Baseball Savant&#8217;s 76th percentile for K rate (26.5%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I don&#8217;t care how disciplined the Cardinals are \u2014 if his line is set this low I&#8217;m going to take it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The righty employs a five-pitch mix and has some of the nastiest breaking stuff in the game. His fastball averages at 97 miles-per-hour and his +12 breaking run value is in the 98th percentile. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">St. Louis is great at making contact with fastballs but struggles mightily on anything that breaks. Its 34.3% whiff rate against those pitches is the fifth highest in baseball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Gilbert is 21-7 against this line in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-fa134a48-a478-432b-95e0-66881f0d337b\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Torkelson over 1.5 bases (+114)<\/a>:<\/strong> Torkelson returned from the IL halfway through August and put up an impressive .306\/.368\/.577 slash line that month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:93864\">Embed: #93864<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He&#8217;s hit the ditch since, batting .100 through five games in September but I believe he&#8217;s due.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Torkelson does his best work against left-handed pitching and is slugging .842 with a 225 wRC+ against southpaws over the last 30 days. On the season, he&#8217;s slugging .578 against lefties and .309 against righties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today he goes up against Brady Basso and the Oakland Athletics. Basso is making his second career MLB start after posting an underwhelming 5.19 ERA in Triple-A.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 26-year-old gave up plenty of hard contact in the minors (2.0 HR\/9) and that bodes well for Torkelson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">De La Cruz under 0.5 runs (-127)<\/a>:<\/strong> Fading De La Cruz is risky business but this seems like a nice spot to do it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:93865\">Embed: #93865<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 22-year-old switch hitter struggles mightily to hit left-handed pitching with a .223 batting average and .303 OBP. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He goes up against Jose Quintana who has put together back-to-back solid starts, giving up one earned run in 5.0 IP against the Chicago White Sox after throwing six scoreless innings against the San Diego Padres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De La Cruz is 1-for-6 lifetime against Quintana and has been held hitless in three of his last six games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Picks made at 10:39 a.m. ET on 09\/07\/2024<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"thestar wp-block-paragraph\">Looking to get started? <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNzQxMyZsPTEzNTI3NDExJnA9MjMyNDM%3D\">Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;ve got three prop recommendations for Saturday&#8217;s MLB slate. The pregame narrative: Logan Gilbert is going up against a plucky St. Louis Cardinals offence but he still should clear a modest strikeout total. Elsewhere, I&#8217;m backing Spencer Torkelson and fading Elly De La Cruz. Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 7. MLB [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":295405,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-295316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets Sept. 7: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for September 7. 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