{"id":295146,"date":"2024-09-06T15:31:03","date_gmt":"2024-09-06T19:31:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=295146"},"modified":"2024-09-06T15:31:04","modified_gmt":"2024-09-06T19:31:04","slug":"nfl-week-1-td-picks-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nfl-week-1-td-picks-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Top NFL Week 1 TD picks: Target Ferguson, Pittman to find the end zone"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Let&#8217;s go with a variety pack for NFL Week 1 TD picks: One running back, one receiver and one tight end. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: How will Gus Edwards navigate an uncertain backfield in his Chargers debut? I think he&#8217;ll show he belongs as the goal-line back. Elsewhere, Michael Pittman and Jake Ferguson both look like solid plays to hit paydirt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best NFL Week 1 prop bets for the upcoming games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">NFL Week 1 prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights\"><strong>Go to full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football\/nfl\">NFL betting markets<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\"><strong>Best bet: Edwards anytime TD (+170)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:93783\">Embed: #93783<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I recently backed Edwards&#8217; teammate, J.K. Dobbins, to clear his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-week-1-prop-bets-2024\">32.5-yard rushing prop<\/a> on Sunday. But there&#8217;s no reason why Edwards can&#8217;t play a key role, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After an injury-plagued 2022 campaign, Edwards was back in the mix for all 17 games with the Baltimore Ravens last season. And he was a beast near the goal line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Edwards led the NFL with 23 carries inside the five-yard line last season and turned that into 12 touchdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Coming off that kind of volume, why is Edwards fetching such a juicy price to score in Week 1?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, he&#8217;s one of four new running backs on the Chargers. And each of the backs has a connection to the current regime:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Edwards and J.K. Dobbins both played under Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman in Baltimore<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kimani Vidal was drafted this year by L.A.&#8217;s new general manager Joe Horitz and head coach Jim Harbaugh<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hassan Haskins, signed recently as a free agent, played under Harbaugh at Michigan from 2018-21<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So it&#8217;s a bit murky, but Edwards is listed atop the depth chart and I think he belongs there. Plus, the Chargers look like a team poised to run the ball a lot this year \u2014 and not just because Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under Harbaugh, Michigan ran the ball more than 60% of the time last season en route to winning the college football national championship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Edwards has demonstrated an ability to perform near the goal line, and I like his chances of bringing that production to his new team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Edwards and the Chargers face the Raiders on Sunday. Last year, Las Vegas allowed the 10th-highest rush success rate, per rbsdm.com.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-fa134a48-a478-432b-95e0-66881f0d337b\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pittman anytime TD (+150):<\/strong> We all saw how dangerous Anthony Richardson was with his legs during a limited sample in his rookie season. Assuming the Texans key on the dual-threat QB, Pittman should have some nice opportunities to find the end zone through the air.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:93810\">Embed: #93810<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s what Pittman&#8217;s target allotment looked like in Richardson&#8217;s four starts last year: 11 (two red zone), 12, five (one RZ), seven (one RZ). He also ran 100% of the Colts&#8217; routes in each of those games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pittman was one of nine players to see 20-plus red zone targets last year &#8230; but he only turned that into two RZ touchdowns. If the volume is there \u2014 and I believe it will be \u2014 look for Indy&#8217;s WR1 to see some positive regression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ferguson anytime TD (+188):<\/strong> The Browns&#8217; defence is a tough one to crack, but Ferguson has as good a chance as anyone on the Cowboys to find the end zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:93809\">Embed: #93809<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m not sold on an Ezekiel Elliot\/Rico Dowdle backfield &#8230; are you? If the Cowboys cozy up near the goal line, Ferguson should be their go-to guy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After all, it worked out pretty well last year. The 2022 draftee hauled in five scores as part of a 71-catch Pro Bowl season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Fantasy Pros, Ferguson led <em>all<\/em> players in targets inside the five-yard line (nine). And he saw at least one red zone target in 13 of 19 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 09\/06\/2024<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s go with a variety pack for NFL Week 1 TD picks: One running back, one receiver and one tight end. The pregame narrative: How will Gus Edwards navigate an uncertain backfield in his Chargers debut? I think he&#8217;ll show he belongs as the goal-line back. Elsewhere, Michael Pittman and Jake Ferguson both look like [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":295186,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-295146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NFL Week 1 TD picks: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our NFL Week 1 TD picks. 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