{"id":292818,"date":"2024-08-23T12:24:53","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T16:24:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=292818"},"modified":"2024-08-23T12:24:54","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T16:24:54","slug":"mets-vs-padres-prop-picks-august-23-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mets-vs-padres-prop-picks-august-23-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Mets vs. Padres prop picks Aug. 23: Bet on Jackson Merrill to stay hot"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The New York Mets and San Diego Padres jockey for wild-card seeding tonight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> San Diego holds the NL&#8217;s second wild-card spot and is 5.5 games clear of New York, which currently sits out of the playoff picture. I&#8217;ve got two prop bets on Jackson Merrill and I am fading Mets starter Paul Blackburn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out my Mets vs. Padres prop picks for Aug. 23.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mets vs. Padres prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights wp-block-paragraph\">MLB Markets:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb\">Click Here<\/a>&nbsp;| MLB Stats:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\">Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best Bet: Merrill over 1.5 bases (+123)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:92442\">Embed: #92442<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Merrill has been trading blows with Paul Skenes in the NL Rookie of the Year race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">San Diego&#8217;s centre fielder is batting .303 in August with five home runs and a 1.105 OPS. That has brought his season-long slash line to an impressive .289\/.319\/.486 with 18 home runs and 71 RBI. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier this week, he became the betting favourite to take home the hardware.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Do I think he&#8217;ll win? No. In fact, just yesterday I placed a bet on Skenes at +100. That line has since flipped with Pittsburgh&#8217;s ace re-taking pole position after throwing six shutout innings (nine Ks). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:92432\">Embed: #92432<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But that&#8217;s not to take away from how good Merrill has been. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On top of having an above-average glove, he&#8217;s been on a rampage at the plate. Merrill has a hit in six of his last seven games, clearing this line in five of those contests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He went 0-for-4 last night but is in a good spot to rebound against Blackburn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">New York&#8217;s starter ranks in the bottom-third percentile for xERA (4.36), xBA (.261), and K rate (19.3) on Baseball Savant. Blackburn mostly gives up soft contact but a player like Merrill should be able to put the bat on the ball and find a gap. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Merrill has five extra-base hits in his last seven games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Merrill over 0.5 RBI (+170):<\/strong> I want to double-dip on Merrill at plus money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:92443\">Embed: #92443<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The value here is insane to me. Merrill is batting sixth in San Diego&#8217;s lineup behind the likes of Manny Machado, Xander Bogarts and Jake Cronenworth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His 71 RBI are the fourth-most on the team and 17 of those have come this month (five in his last four games). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opponents are getting on base at a .330 clip against Blackburn since he joined New York. Merrill should have an opportunity to drive some of his teammates home. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Blackburn under 17.5 outs (-122):<\/strong> Blackburn has cleared this line in three of four games as a Met but I&#8217;m not sold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:92444\">Embed: #92444<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He landed on exactly 6.0 IP (18.0 outs) in each of those contests and was going up against some cupcake opponents in the Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those teams rank 29th, 28th and 24th, respectively, in wRC+ on the season. San Diego is seventh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Blackburn&#8217;s underlying numbers are ugly and he&#8217;s going up against a lineup which can expose that. Fade him tonight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Picks made at 12:08 p.m. ET 08\/23\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The New York Mets and San Diego Padres jockey for wild-card seeding tonight. The pregame narrative: San Diego holds the NL&#8217;s second wild-card spot and is 5.5 games clear of New York, which currently sits out of the playoff picture. I&#8217;ve got two prop bets on Jackson Merrill and I am fading Mets starter Paul [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":292844,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-292818","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Mets vs. Padres prop picks Aug. 23: Predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Mets vs. Padres prop picks for Aug. 23. 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