{"id":292734,"date":"2024-08-22T14:09:16","date_gmt":"2024-08-22T18:09:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=292734"},"modified":"2024-08-22T14:09:17","modified_gmt":"2024-08-22T18:09:17","slug":"mets-vs-padres-prop-picks-august-22-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mets-vs-padres-prop-picks-august-22-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Mets vs. Padres prop picks Aug. 22: Bet on Lindor to score, fade Cease"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tonight’s matchup between the New York Mets and San Diego Padres is a big one in the NL playoff race. And I’m targeting a bunch of big names.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Dylan Cease is rolling right now, but I think the Mets can put a stop to that. I’m backing Francisco Lindor and J.D. Martinez to do damage for New York, and I’m fading Cease’s strikeouts prop in a parlay with Mets starter Luis Severino.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out my Mets vs. Padres prop picks for Aug. 22.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mets vs. Padres prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

MLB Markets: Click Here<\/a> | MLB Stats: Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Bet:<\/a> Lindor over 0.5 runs (+120)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #92345<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lindor is way too hot right now to have a price like this on his run prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Mets’ leadoff man has nine multi-hit games in his past 14, and he owns a .910 OPS in 19 games this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His 158 wRC+ in August is 28th among 184 qualified hitters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These numbers alone make him a compelling candidate to score a run at plus-money odds, and his status as the leadoff hitter only adds to that. Lindor has plenty of capable bats behind him (including Martinez, who I’ll discuss further in a second).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 63 plate appearances, the Mets have a .367 wOBA and a .519 SLG against Dylan Cease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Individually, Lindor is 3-for-9 against Cease … and all three of those hits left the yard. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat:<\/strong> Lindor has a .379 on-base percentage this month and has cashed his runs prop in 12 of 19 games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Martinez over 1.5 bases (+200)<\/a>:<\/strong> Martinez is only batting .197 this month, but he deserves far better results than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #92355<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the start of August, Martinez has a .274 xBA, per Baseball Savant, as well as a 52% hard-hit rate. Over the course of a full season, that would be a 94th-percentile hard-hit rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, Martinez is crushing the ball and could easily cash this bet with one swing. He’s done that in two of his past three games, in fact, homering on Monday and Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Martinez is 4-for-8 with a double and three walks against Cease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Parlay: Cease under 8.5 Ks, Severino over 3.5 Ks (+128)<\/a>:<\/strong> Given that I’m backing a pair of Mets hitters, it makes sense to also find a way to fade Cease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #92367<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The right-hander has gone under 8.5 Ks in 19 of 26 starts and is averaging just 7.2 Ks per start this year. He finished with five strikeouts when he faced the Mets a couple of months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York has a 21.9% K rate, which is below league-average. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And given that the Mets have hit Cease well in the past \u2014 he coughed up seven runs over 3.2 innings against them in June \u2014 he could simply hit this under by being chased early from the game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Severino, this line should be more than manageable. It’s too much juice for me to tout it as a solo wager, but I certainly like it in a plus-money combo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #92366<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, the Padres have the lowest K rate in the majors (17.6%). But Severino has cashed this bet in six of his past seven outings and is averaging 4.9 Ks per start this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last season, Severino fanned five Padres hitters over 6.2 innings. And he has 18 Ks in 53 plate appearances against the current Padres squad (34.0% K rate). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 08\/21\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking to get started? Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tonight’s matchup between the New York Mets and San Diego Padres is a big one in the NL playoff race. And I’m targeting a bunch of big names. The pregame narrative: Dylan Cease is rolling right now, but I think the Mets can put a stop to that. I’m backing Francisco Lindor and J.D. Martinez […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":292765,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-292734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMets vs. Padres prop picks Aug. 22: Predictions & odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Mets vs. Padres prop picks for Aug. 22. 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