{"id":292270,"date":"2024-08-18T09:44:37","date_gmt":"2024-08-18T13:44:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=292270"},"modified":"2024-08-18T09:44:55","modified_gmt":"2024-08-18T13:44:55","slug":"blue-jays-props-vs-cubs-august-18-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-props-vs-cubs-august-18-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays props vs. Cubs Aug. 18: Shota Imanaga’s strikeout prop holds value"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Shota Imanaga and the Chicago Cubs look to finish off a three-game sweep over the Toronto Blue Jays at Wrigley Field on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto will see Imanaga for the first time today, and I like the plus-money odds on his strikeout prop. I’m also betting the over on bases props for two sluggers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Seiya Suzuki.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Cubs on Aug. 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blue Jays props vs. Cubs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

MLB markets: Click Here<\/a> | MLB stats: Click Here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best bet: Imanaga over 5.5 Ks (+110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #91922<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For most of the season, the Blue Jays have been one of the toughest strikeout matchups in the majors. In fact, they still have the seventh-lowest K rate (20.4%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But given Toronto’s roster upheaval at the trade deadline, it isn’t totally fair to grade this team on its season-long numbers. Since the calendar flipped to August, high-strikeout guys like Leo Jimenez, Addison Barger and Joey Loperfido have drawn into the lineup regularly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far this month, Toronto has the 12th-highest K rate (24.0%). Not such a bad matchup after all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that that’s established, let’s talk about Imanaga. The former NPB star averages more than a strikeout per inning (9.2 K\/9) and he has worked into the sixth inning or later in 16 of 22 starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That alone provides a nice baseline for this wager. As does the fact that no one on the Jays has faced him before, which I think works in the pitcher’s favour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imanaga has an elite swing-and-miss for lefties (sweeper) and righties (split-finger). Both pitches have a K rate and whiff rate above 35.0%, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Imanaga does best is garner out-of-zone swings. He ranks in the 98th percentile in chase rate (35.5%). Ideally, those chase pitches either lead to foul balls that put the count in his favour or whiffs that result in a strikeout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In August, Toronto has the seventh-highest whiff rate in the majors (29.9%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat:<\/strong> Imanaga has gone over 5.5 Ks in 13 of his past 18 starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+110):<\/strong> Even if Imanaga piles up punchouts against Toronto, I cannot ignore a plus-money bases prop for Guerrero. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #91931<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the all-star break, Guerrero has an MLB-high .893 slugging percentage. For context, there are only 12 hitters with an OPS<\/em> higher than that this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After ripping a double at Wrigley yesterday, Guerrero has cashed this bases prop in 20 of his past 28 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imanaga has the lowest walk rate in the NL (1.3 BB\/9), which bodes well for Guerrero’s chances to reach base with a hit. And Imanaga has been hittable, allowing a .790 opponent OPS over his past nine starts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suzuki over 1.5 bases (+130):<\/strong> Suzuki turns 30 today, and while that doesn’t factor into my prediction I do hope he celebrates with a productive day at the plate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #91932<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The outfielder only has a .507 SLG over his past 20 games and should match up well against Bowden Francis, who struggles in righty-on-righty matchups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Francis has allowed righties to post a .518 SLG against him this year (compared to a .404 SLG from lefties).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suzuki has fared well against RHPs on the season, posting a .269\/.333\/.483 slash line (good for a 127 wRC+).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picks made at 9:25 a.m. on 08\/18\/24<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Shota Imanaga and the Chicago Cubs look to finish off a three-game sweep over the Toronto Blue Jays at Wrigley Field on Sunday afternoon. The pregame narrative: Toronto will see Imanaga for the first time today, and I like the plus-money odds on his strikeout prop. I’m also betting the over on bases props for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":292279,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-292270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBlue Jays props vs. Cubs: Aug. 18 | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays props vs. the Cubs for Aug. 17. 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