{"id":290531,"date":"2024-08-12T13:58:10","date_gmt":"2024-08-12T17:58:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=290531"},"modified":"2024-08-12T13:58:10","modified_gmt":"2024-08-12T17:58:10","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-august-12-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-august-12-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets Aug. 12: Back hitters Machado, Devers and Semien"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Today’s recommendations feature the over on three hitter props. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pregame narrative<\/strong>: I’m backing Rafael Devers, Marcus Semien and Manny Machado. All have favourable matchups and I expect them to deliver. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out why in the best MLB prop bets for August 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Visit today’s full MLB markets<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best bet: Devers over 1.5 total bases (-103)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #91383<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tonight’s Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers game has slugfest potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t trust either starting pitcher to be effective at Fenway Park, the most hitter-friendly stadium in the American League (according to Baseball Savant). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 9.5 total is the highest of the day in a matchup featuring Tyler Mahle (making his second appearance since last April) and Brayan Bello, who’s fresh off the paternity list. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mahle was serviceable in his season debut last week against a strong Houston Astros team but struggled to miss bats and his max fastball velocity was down three mph from its peak a few seasons ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bello, meanwhile, has one of the highest hard-hit rates among starters and has been demolished at home. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a good spot to back some hitters, and I’ll start with Devers.\u00a0The 27-year-old star has raked at Fenway all year and punished right-handed pitching.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He enters with a .327\/.413\/.686 line versus righties. That 1.095 OPS trails only MVP favourites Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At home, Devers’ numbers are nearly as strong: .314\/.395\/.623.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key stat<\/strong>: The Red Sox third baseman has cleared this line in 11 of his last 15 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Semien over 0.5 RBI (+160)<\/strong>: Bello, Semien’s spot in the order, and the teammates hitting in front of him are all reasons why I like this play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #91385<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Rangers second baseman has hit No. 3 for 12 straight games after batting leadoff the entire season. That puts him behind left-handed hitters Josh Smith and Corey Seager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bello has surrendered a .277\/.352\/.509 slash line to lefty hitters and has a 5.71 ERA at home (10 starts).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smith has a team-best .363 on-base percentage and Seager is getting on at a .389 clip versus righties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those are strong tablesetters for Semien, who has slumped in August following his best month of the season (.287 BA, .853 OPS in July).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Machado over 1.5 total bases (+108)<\/strong>: I don’t think this will stay plus money through the afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #91384<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The San Diego Padres have a juicy matchup versus soft-tossing lefty Marco Gonzales and the Pittsburgh Pirates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gonzales has allowed four-plus runs in back-to-back starts and six-plus hits in each of his last five outings. There’s little upside here outside of potentially eating some innings (though he has failed to log five frames in three straight). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full disclosure: I took Gonzales under 17.5 outs (-125) this morning. His outs market is unavailable at NorthStar at the time of this writing but this would probably be my top play (I would take under 16.5 as well). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now to Machado. He has an .847 OPS since the All-Star Game and has slugged better than .500 in three consecutive months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sample is small, but over 11 career at-bats versus Gonzales, Machado has six hits (.545 BA, 1.273 OPS) and no strikeouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 08\/12\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today’s recommendations feature the over on three hitter props. The pregame narrative: I’m backing Rafael Devers, Marcus Semien and Manny Machado. All have favourable matchups and I expect them to deliver. Check out why in the best MLB prop bets for August 12. MLB prop bets Visit today’s full MLB markets Best bet: Devers over […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":290546,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130,10,155],"class_list":["post-290531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-betting","tag-mlb-props"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMLB prop bets Aug. 12: Picks, predictions & odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for August 12. 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