The Wimbledon semifinal is a star-studded affair with elite matchups for fans and bettors alike to look forward to.
The latest: Taylor Fritz is playing some of the best tennis of his career, but even at his best, Carlos Alcaraz remains an overwhelming favourite. A must-see showdown between Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic will determine who earns the last spot in the Wimbledon men’s final.
Check out my top Wimbledon predictions for July 11, featuring a pick on both matches.
Wimbledon predictions: Men’s semis
Best bet: Alcaraz -2.5 sets (+138)
A semifinal run for Fritz is certainly impressive, but now is the time to dissect his results.
Fritz has lost six sets en route to the Wimbledon semis, more than any other competitor remaining. Each of his first two matches went the distance.
His level of competition is worth noting, too. Fritz is the only player remaining who hasn’t faced an ATP top-15-ranked opponent.
Fritz’s most notable win at this tournament was his last, a four-set victory over world No. 20 Karen Khachanov.
Needless to say, a matchup against Alcaraz presents a completely different set of challenges.
Alcaraz was dialled in during his quarterfinal win over Cameron Norrie. The Spaniard dispatched the British tennis star in three sets.
His grass-court record is impossible to ignore as well. Alcaraz is a sterling 10-0 on the surface this year and 30-1 since 2023, including two Wimbledon titles during this stretch.
The American is a heavy server who has a good, but not elite, return game. Alcaraz has the return game to neutralize Fritz’s serve and a strong enough serve to expose what holes he does have as a returner.
These two have squared off twice, with Alcaraz winning both in straight sets. I’m dubious of Fritz’s ability to win a set off the Spaniard until I see it happen.
Key stat: Alcaraz has won two of his last three matches in straight sets.
Full Wimbledon betting markets
Sinner vs. Djokovic best bet
Sinner -1.5 sets (+105): I’m not going to sit here and hold Sinner’s poor performance versus Grigor Dimitrov against him.
Yes, the Italian was down 0-2 and likely on his way to losing before an untimely retirement. No, that didn’t stop him from getting by the world No. 10 Ben Shelton in straight sets.
I’m going to chalk Sinner’s close call as a stellar performance from a very talented Dimitrov, and not an indictment against his level of play.
After all, those are still the only two sets Sinner has lost to this point at Wimbledon.
No remaining competitor has lost fewer sets than Sinner, and this is the part of the tournament where time on court starts to become a factor.
It’s especially worth highlighting as Sinner gets ready to face 38-year-old Djokovic.
The Serbian has defied aging better than anyone, but Father Time is undefeated. Take a quick glance at the time on court difference between the two:
- Djokovic: 13 hours and 23 minutes.
- Sinner: Nine hours and 50 minutes.
Sinner is the only competitor remaining who hasn’t spent 13-plus hours on court at Wimbledon. This will work in his favour with unusually warm temperatures in the forecast for London this weekend.
Sinner has won four consecutive matches against Djokovic, making it fair to believe that he has the Serbian’s number.
Wimbledon predictions made at 12:20 p.m. on 07/10/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.