With Logan Gilbert on the mound, the Seattle Mariners are gunning for a three-game sweep at home on Thursday against the Chicago White Sox.
The pregame narrative: The Mariners are in the thick of the AL playoff race, and stacking wins against bad teams like the White Sox is a must. Seattle is 4-1 vs. Chicago this season, covering a -1.5 run line in three of those games.
Check out my White Sox vs. Mariners predictions, featuring Josh Naylor and Lenyn Sosa.
White Sox vs. Mariners predictions
Parlay: Mariners -0.5 F5 | Naylor over 1.5 bases | Sosa over 0.5 hits (+450)
Mariners -0.5 – first five moneyline (-175): Gilbert hasn’t been at his sharpest lately, but he still gives the Mariners a distinct advantage on Thursday afternoon.
The right-hander has allowed three-plus runs in back-to-back starts for just the second time this season. That doesn’t wash away a season’s worth of quality stuff, though.
- Gilbert ranks in the 94th percentile in both xERA (2.72) and xBA (.202), per Baseball Savant.
- Among 138 pitchers with 70+ innings, Gilbert has the eighth-lowest FIP (2.75).
On the flip side, Chicago’s Shane Smith has been going through a really rough stretch.
In his past six outings, Smith has a 9.93 ERA with 43 baserunners in just 22.2 IP. The White Sox are 1-4-1 on the F5 moneyline in that span.
MLB SGP legs
Naylor over 1.5 total bases (+132): If you’re looking for another way to fade Smith, I think backing Naylor is a good way to do it.
The Mississauga, Ontario native has put up strong numbers against right-handed pitchers for years, posting an OPS of .800 or better in every season since 2021.
This year, the left-hitting Naylor has a .293/.376/.467 slash line vs. RHPs.
Naylor’s .287 xBA ranks in the 89th percentile, and he’s flashed some power recently with home runs in back-to-back games.
In 12 games since joining the Mariners on July 25, Naylor is slugging .500.
Sosa over 0.5 hits (-182): If I’m going to back any hitter against Gilbert, I want it to be someone who bats from the left side and is in a groove.
Sosa, who’s on a nine-game hitting streak, fits the bill.
The 25-year-old infielder is 14-for-32 (.438) during the streak with more home runs (four) than strikeouts (three).
Sosa is a certified free swinger, posting a whopping 41.9% chase rate (third percentile) while walking just 3.6% of the time (second percentile). When he digs into the box, he’s up there to hit.
Erratic swing decisions aside, Sosa is a solid hitter. His .283 xBA ranks in the 83rd percentile, and he’s cashed this bet in 60 of 89 starts (67.4%).
White Sox vs. Mariners predictions made at 10:55 a.m. ET on 08/07/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.