The Minnesota Timberwolves can put away the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night in Game 5 of their second-round series.
The pregame narrative: Steph Curry reportedly won’t be back until Game 6 at the earliest, but the series isn’t expected to last that long. Minnesota is a heavy home favourite to wrap this thing up and advance to the Western Conference finals.
Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for May 14, featuring Jonathan Kuminga and Julius Randle.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions
Parlay: Over 198.5 points | Kuminga over 22.5 points/rebounds | Randle 20+ points (+300)
Over 198.5 points (-177): With Curry set to miss another game, my initial instinct was to toss an alt under into this parlay.
But the Warriors and Timberwolves have cleared a 198.5-point total in all three Curry-less games of this series, so I actually prefer this route.
- Overs are 27-18 (60.0%) in Minnesota home games this year, per Team Rankings.
- Since March of last season, this over is 4-1 when the Warriors and T-Wolves meet in Minnesota.
- The average total in this series’ three games without Curry is 212 points.
Overs are 3-1 in Minnesota’s four home games so far this postseason.
NBA SGP legs
Kuminga over 22.5 points/rebounds (-114): I backed Kuminga over 23.5 points/rebounds for Game 4, when he finished with 23 points … and zero rebounds.
That was a super tough beat, but the market has dipped a bit, and I’m buying back in.
I can’t see Kuminga putting up another goose egg as a rebounder. He’s 6-foot-8, with as much athleticism as anyone on the Warriors’ roster.
Kuminga averaged 4.6 rebounds during the regular season and had 11 total boards across Games 2 and 3.
Even if it’s another quiet night on the glass, though, Kuminga’s scoring touch can carry him most (if not all) of the way.
In three playoff games without Curry, Kuminga is averaging 23.7 points on 59.5% shooting.
Randle 20+ points (-182): Randle has a $31 million player option for next season, but based on his playoff results, I think he’s earned himself a lot more money by opting for free agency.
There’s more basketball to be played first, though, and Randle is a key reason why the Timberwolves are one win shy of the conference finals.
- 23.3 PPG
- 15+ points in 9 of 9 games
- 20+ points in 7 of 9 games
It’s not like Randle’s shooting numbers are off the charts, either.
He had a 48.5 FG% and 34.4 3PT% during the regular season. In the playoffs, Randle has posted a 48.3 FG% and a 34.7 3PT%.
Randle has played 40-plus minutes and attempted 20-plus shots in back-to-back games. That type of volume will certainly play.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions made at 2:10 p.m. ET 05/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.