Jimmy Butler was a force in his return, and I expect another strong outing in Wednesday’s Game 5 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.
The pregame narrative: Alongside Butler, I’m backing Houston’s Amen Thompson to make noise as a rebounder. The Rockets need a win to keep their season alive.
Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks for Game 5 of the opening round.
Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks
Best Bet: Butler over 18.5 points (-127)
After sitting out Game 3 with a pelvic injury, Butler’s stat line for Game 4 was anybody’s guess.
He came up big for the Warriors, finishing with 27 points in 40 minutes to lead them to a narrow victory. And that gives me faith that he can stay heavily involved with the series shifting back to Houston.
Butler’s 27-point night did include 12 free-throw attempts, but that’s not as fluky as it sounds.
The savvy vet is used to getting to the line with regularity, as he averaged 7.7 free-throw attempts with Golden State during the regular season.
Butler went 10-of-19 with six free throws in a 25-point showing during Game 1, then he got hurt in the first quarter of Game 2.
In Game 4, he attempted 12 shots to go with the 12 free-throw attempts. That’s plenty of volume to make this points prop attainable.
It’s been a defence-first series, but Butler is a central figure in Golden State’s offence and doesn’t seem hampered by his recent injury.
Key stat: Dating back to the start of the 2023 postseason, Butler has averaged 25.9 PPG and cashed this bet in 21 of 25 games.
Game 5 prop prediction
Thompson over 6.5 rebounds (-137): There’s a fair bit of juice on this prop, but I’d say it’s warranted.
- Thompson averaged 8.2 rebounds this season, going over 6.5 boards in 45 of 69 games (65.2%).
- The implied probability of -137 odds is 57.8%.
- Thompson has 7+ rebounds in 6 of 9 matchups vs. Golden State this year, landing on exactly six boards in two of the outliers.
Golden State has committed to playing a small-ball lineup for most of this series, featuring 6-foot-6 Draymond Green at centre.
Thompson (6-foot-7) is big enough — and certainly athletic enough — to impose his will on the glass.
Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks made at 3:45 p.m. ET 04/29/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.