The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets begin their first-round playoff series in Sunday’s NBA playoff nightcap.
The pregame narrative: Golden State is expected to win the series, and I’m backing the road squad to cover an alt underdog spread in this game. My +275 SGP also features picks on Jimmy Butler and Alperen Sengun.
Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets playoff SGP predictions for Game 1 on April 20.
Warriors vs. Rockets predictions
Parlay: Warriors +6.5 | Butler under 5.5 assists | Sengun 8+ rebounds (+275)
Warriors +6.5 (-275): The Warriors are -177 favourites to win this series despite being road underdogs in Game 1. Even if they start with a loss, I like this margin for them.
Golden State is 10-6 ATS as a road underdog this season, per Team Rankings. And the team is 5-0-1 ATS in its past six road games overall.
Houston, on the other hand, is just 2-5 ATS in its past seven games as a home team.
It’s difficult to quantify the advantage Golden State might wield based on playoff experience. But I think there’s something to that.
Also, the Warriors were a top-10 squad in net rating this season (+3.2), trailing the Rockets (+4.6) by a modest margin.
NBA SGP legs
Butler under 5.5 assists (-109): It’s not that I think Butler will have a down game. I just expect he’ll be relied upon as a scorer far more than a passer.
Look at how the Warriors’ past two games went. Butler attempted 20 shots apiece in those matchups and hit the 30-point mark both times.
Those were meaningful games against the Clippers (to try to avoid the play-in tournament) and Grizzlies (to clinch the No. 7 seed). With Jonathan Kuminga seemingly in the doghouse, it’s tough to find reliable scoring support behind Butler and Curry.
Butler went under 5.5 assists in both matchups vs. Houston this season. The Rockets allowed the second-fewest assists per game.
Sengun 8+ rebounds (-420): Golden State doesn’t have a ton of size, and that should help Sengun make his mark on Sunday night.
- The 6-foot-11 centre averaged 10.3 rebounds per game this season.
- He grabbed 8+ rebounds in 62 of 76 games.
- Sengun went 4-0 against this prop when facing the Warriors.
During the regular season, Golden State allowed the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (16.38).
Warriors vs. Rockets predictions made at 1:28 p.m. ET 04/20/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.