It’s an all-NorCal showdown on Wednesday at Golden 1 Center, where the Sacramento Kings host the Golden State Warriors.
The pregame narrative: Steph Curry (illness) will miss tonight’s game, which helps explain why the Warriors are underdogs against the 2-5 Kings. Sacramento was off last night after wrapping up a four-game road trip.
Check out my Warriors vs. Kings SGP predictions for Nov. 5, featuring Draymond Green and Zach LaVine.
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Warriors vs. Kings predictions
Parlay: Green over 12.5 rebounds/assists | LaVine 3+ threes | Under 237.5 points (+335)
Green over 11.5 rebounds/assists (-115): Green is averaging exactly 12.5 rebounds/assists through eight games, and tonight’s situation feels like one that should lead to an over.
- Jimmy Butler, who’s third on Golden State in rebounds and second in assists, exited last night’s game with a back issue. He is questionable to play tonight.
- Curry, who’s third on the team in assists, has been ruled out with an illness.
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Green is already the Warriors assists leader (6.4 APG), and with Curry out at point guard, he should see heightened responsibilities as a passer.
From a rebounding standpoint, the Kings don’t have a lot of fearsome players on the glass after NBA rebounding leader Domantas Sabonis.
As a whole, Sacramento ranks 28th in rebounding rate (47.0%).
NBA SGP legs
LaVine 3+ threes (-190): LaVine was the best 3-point shooter in the NBA last year, cashing from deep at a 44.6% clip. That was No. 1 among 177 players averaging at least four 3-point attempts per game.
Understandably, he has continued to lean into his beyond-the-arc shooting. So far this season, he’s attempting a career-high 8.6 threes/game.
Though his success rate hasn’t been as high (38.3 3PT%), LaVine’s shot volume means this milestone should be good most nights.
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- He’s 4-3 vs. this prop, with multiple 3s in six of seven games.
- LaVine has attempted 8+ threes in five of seven games.
LaVine is 8-for-18 from deep at home this season, cashing this 3s milestone in both games.
He’s also 3-1 vs. this milestone in his past four matchups against the Warriors (since January 2024).
Under 237.5 points (-286): Even in Year 17, Curry is still the primary offensive driver for the Warriors. His absence tonight leads me to believe that this matchup is headed for a fairly low point total.
- In their past 10 regular season games without Curry, the Warriors have averaged 105.5 points. The average total in those games was 212.9 points.
- The Warriors have gone under 237.5 points in four consecutive games (and Curry played in each of those).
Keep in mind that Butler could miss tonight’s game, too. That would leave Golden State with zero players averaging 17.0 PPG or more.
The Kings and Warriors rank 14th and 20th, respectively, in pace. So it’s not like this game should be expected to turn into a track meet.
Both teams rank outside the top 10 in offensive rating as well, and with at least one notable star on the sidelines, they should stay under this number.
Warriors vs. Kings predictions made at 3:20 p.m. ET 11/05/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.