I’ve got a wide receiver and tight end featured in my TD picks for the wild-card game between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams.
The pregame narrative: Jordan Addison has consistently scored in a pass-heavy attack and he gets a plus matchup. Secondly, I am taking a shot at Tyler Higbee to catch a touchdown pass at longshot odds.
Check out the best Vikings vs. Rams TD picks for the wild-card round.
Vikings vs. Rams TD picks
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Best bet: Addison anytime TD (+130)
Addison has emerged as Sam Darnold’s go-to target in the red zone, but the odds aren’t reflecting that.
Since Week 8, the second-year pro has been a scoring machine.
- Addison caught eight touchdown passes, with scores in 6/10 games.
- Targeted in the red zone in nine of 10 games.
Justin Jefferson (priced at -120) warrants plenty of attention from defensive backs, which allows Addison to find open spaces.
From looking at the underlying metrics, I cannot justify the gap in touchdown odds between the two wideouts. Despite missing two games to injury, Addison saw 19 red-zone targets to Jefferson’s 24.
Under Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings like to run passing plays near the goal line, throwing at a 58% clip from inside the 10-yard line (ranked sixth in the NFL), per Pro Football Focus.
This spells problems for a vulnerable Rams secondary that allowed 21 touchdowns to wide receivers, the third-most in the NFL.
They also use a high rate of zone coverage, a setup that Darnold has thrived against with a 108.5 passer rating (fifth-best).
Key stat: This season, Addison converted 44.4% of his targets within the 10-yard line.
Quick picks
Higbee anytime TD (+400): Higbee has long served as a reliable end-zone target for Matthew Stafford.
The Rams tight end scored in 2/3 games since returning from an MCL and ACL injury.
In Week 18, Higbee received a healthy dose of red-zone looks with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
Although the Vikings are a tough matchup against opposing tight ends, this price is just too good to ignore.
With an emphasis on covering Puka Nucua and Cooper Kupp in the red zone, Stafford could seek out his trusted tight end with their season on the line.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 01/13/2025.
