The first round of the U.S. Open begins on Sunday with some of the game’s biggest stars in action.
The latest: Denis Shapovalov is having a strong hard-court swing following Wimbledon, making him a solid pick to win his first match. Francisco Cerundolo’s game is trending in the wrong direction, but he should be able to beat Matteo Arnaldi. Lastly, I expect Carlos Alcaraz to breeze past Reilly Opelka.
Check out my top US Open predictions for August 24-25, featuring a pick on Shapovalov vs. Marton Fucsovics.
US Open predictions: August 24-25
Best Bet: Shapovalov to win (-138)
This profiles as one of the more intriguing matches in the first round of the U.S. Open.
Both Shapovalov and Fucsovics have won hard-court titles since Wimbledon. The former won at Los Cabos, while the latter won at Winston-Salem.
Part of the reason why I’m dubious of Fucsovics’ chances, however, is because of his run in North Carolina last week.
The Hungarian enters this tournament with very little rest. He did earn a walkover win against Sebastian Korda in the final, but he has still played four matches in the last week.
At 33 years old, that’s a notable amount of action.
Compare that to Shapovalov, who hasn’t played a single match since August 10.
While Fucsovics is a solid all-around player, he lacks the elite traits Shapovalov possesses.
Shapovalov has the 12th-best return rating on the tour (149.6) and is 47th in under-pressure rating (203.0), according to ATPTour.com.
Fucsovics doesn’t rank inside the top-50 in either of those categories, or in serve rating.
Bet on the Canadian to advance.
Key stat: Shapovalov has won two of three meetings on hard courts against Fucsovics.
Go to full US Open betting markets
Best Bet: Opelka vs. Alcaraz
Alcaraz -2.5 sets (-138): This will be the first-ever meeting between Opelka and Alcaraz, and I don’t expect it to last very long.
Opelka’s serve can make him a dangerous competitor. He averages more aces per match than any other competitor on tour (16.3).
His 6-foot-11 frame gives him one of the most potent serves on tour, but his return game has always been a bit of a mixed bag.
Earning breaks against Opelka is a challenge for most, but if anybody can, I’m banking on Alcaraz doing just that.
The Spaniard has the seventh-highest break points converted percentage (43.5%) and is second in return rating.
Alcaraz is also in elite form, winning four of his six matches at the Cincinnati Open without dropping a set.
US Open predictions: Arnaldi vs. Cerundolo
Cerundolo to win (-143): Cerundolo isn’t in peak form, but there’s still value backing him at this price.
The Argentine has lost seven of his last 11 matches, but he has been dealing with an abdominal strain that forced him to retire from his most recent appearance.
Cerundolo has been resting for three-plus weeks, and that’ll hopefully have him fresh to begin the U.S. Open.
His opponent, Arnaldi, is having one of the worst years of his career. The Italian is 18-19 overall, sporting an ugly 9-10 record on outdoor hard courts.
Cerundolo, meanwhile, is a strong 10-5 on the surface.
I expect a fresh Cerundolo to make quick work of Arnaldi.
U.S. Open predictions made at 11:15 a.m. on 08/23/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.