The first round of the U.S. Open concludes on Tuesday.
The latest: Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime will make his tournament debut against a struggling Billy Harris. Later on, Alex de Minaur looks to make noise on his preferred playing surface against fellow Australian Christopher O’Connell.
Check out my U.S. Open betting picks for Aug. 26 below, featuring a pick on Hamad Medjedovic vs. Daniel Altmaier.
US Open betting picks: Aug. 26
Best bet: Medjedovic -5.5 games (+102)
There isn’t much going right for Altmaier right now.
The 26-year-old is under .500 overall this season (26-28) and hasn’t fared well on outdoor hard courts.
- He’s 7-13 on the playing surface this season.
- Since the start of 2022, he’s 30-49 on hard courts, finishing with a losing record in each season.
- Altmaier is 1-5 in his last six matches, with three of those losses coming to opponents ranked outside the top 90.
On the other side, Medjedovic is still early in his career, but he’s put together a respectable 39-26 hardcourt record (6-3 in 2025).
Each of his last five wins has come in straight sets with notable victories over Gabriel Diallo and Tallon Griekspoor.
Court type and momentum are huge factors in tennis, and Medjedovic holds the advantage in both departments.
Key stat: Medjedovic is 5-2 in his last seven matches, with one of the losses coming against Carlos Alcaraz.
Best bet: de Minaur vs. O’Connell
Under 30.5 games (-115): To me, this is the best way to bet on de Minaur flashing dominance.
He is coming off back-to-back losses, but he won 11 of the 12 matches prior, so the extended rest may be a blessing in disguise.
During that run, he won a title in Washington, an event also played on hard courts.
de Minaur is 19-7 on the playing surface this season and owns a great 67% win rate on outdoor hard courts in his career.
His opponent, O’Connell, is a tier below, ranking 81st in the world and holding a 17-22 record in 2025.
The Australian also comes into this event with some injury concerns. He had to either retire or withdraw from two of his past three matches.
A lot is working against O’Connell in this matchup.
US Open picks: Harris vs. Auger Aliassime
Auger Aliassime -2.5 sets (-110): Let’s close things out with a pick on the top Canadian men’s player.
This season has been a roller coaster for Auger-Aliassime. He started this season on a tear, going 12-3 on outdoor hard courts and collecting an ATP title in Adelaide in the process.
He’s 4-5 on the court type since, but he has the right matchup to start his U.S. Open off with a dominant result.
- Firstly, Harris is struggling this season with a sub-.500 record (28-33).
- Secondly, he qualified for this event as a lucky loser after being eliminated in the qualifiers by No. 173-ranked Chak Lam Coleman Wong in straight sets.
Auger-Aliassime was cruising at the Cincinnati Open before he ran into Jannik Sinner. A loss in that match doesn’t hurt the Canadian’s stock ahead of the U.S. Open.
The Canadian has the better win rate on outdoor hard courts this season (67%) despite playing opponents with an average rank of 52.5, compared to Harris, whose opponents had an average rank of 264.2.
U.S. Open betting picks made at 10:57 a.m. on 08/25/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.