At long last, Khamzat Chimaev will challenge Dricus Du Plessis for the UFC middleweight title.
The pre-fight narrative: The 185-pounder is undefeated as a martial artist and he is currently a sizeable favourite to win the belt. The champ, Du Plessis, has overcome underdog status before, though, and looks for his third title defence.
Check out the odds, fight card and my UFC 319 predictions for the Aug. 16 event in Chicago.
UFC 319 predictions
Best bet: Any fighter to win by submission (+104)
Chimaev is +135 to win by submission, so I’m happy taking the small hit to include Du Plessis as well.
After all, the champ does have two wins by submission in his last six fights. He’s known for his striking, but he’s an underrated wrestler who’s slick when he gets his opponent’s back.
When he defended his belt against Israel Adesanya, he hurt the former middleweight king on the feet before chasing his back and finding a rear-naked choke.
Do I expect Du Plessis to sub Chimaev? No, but it’s within the realm of possibilities, and the insurance is worth the price.
Now, let’s dive into Chimaev, who is 9-0 in the UFC with four submission victories.
He is relentless in chasing takedowns and needed less than five minutes to submit Robert Whittaker his last time out.
Chimaev averages 4.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and 2.4 submission attempts. Even in his draw with Kamaru Usman, the 31-year-old has the former champs back for the entirety of the first round before gassing out.
Usman is a much better wrestler than Du Plessis, and that was Chimaev’s first bout back after a long layoff due to injuries.
The champ has faced three straight strikers (Sean Strickland twice, Adesanya), so he was able to avoid the wrestling. But he was taken down at least once in three straight fights before.
Du Plessis is a great scrambler, but his 50% takedown defence is worrisome in this matchup.
Key stat: Chimaev has attempted a submission in seven of his nine UFC bouts. One of the fights in which he didn’t was a 17-second knockout over Gerald Meerschaert.
Fight card and odds
| Fighter | Odds | Weight class | Odds | Fighter |
| Dricus Du Plessis (C) | +195 | Middleweight | -240 | Khamzat Chimaev (3) |
| Lerone Murphy (6) | +135 | Featherweight | -167 | Aaron Pico |
| Geoff Neal (11) | +195 | Welterweight | -250 | Carlos Prates (12) |
| Jarred Cannonier (9) | +155 | Middleweight | -195 | Micheal Page |
| Tim Elliott (11) | +230 | Flyweight | -305 | Kai Asukara (15) |
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
UFC 319 odds as of 1:29 p.m. on 08/14/2025.
UFC best bet
Murphy to win (+134): This line feels off to me.
- Murphy is 8-0-1 in the UFC and undefeated overall as a martial artist (14-0-1)
- His draw came in his first bout with the organization before the Englishman rattled off eight straight wins over some of the division’s toughest competitors.
- Pico is a 13-4 fighter who spent most of his time in Bellator and, more recently, the PFL.
- His only defeat in his last 10 bouts was due to Pico getting injured and the fight ending prematurely.
But I cannot get behind his record against non-UFC competition. He faced a lot of lower-tier fighters, with his best win coming over a 38-year-old Henry Corrales (21-7).
Murphy, on the other hand, is coming off a dominant decision win over the ever-dangerous Josh Emmett.
In fact, that’s five consecutive decision wins for Murphy, as he uses his great wrestling (54% takedown defence) and elite striking defence (61%) to pull away on the judges’ scorecards.
It’s also worth noting that fighters who recently moved from other top promotions have struggled in the UFC.
Both Patricio Pitbull and Kai Asukara were champs in Bellator/ONE before being dominated in their UFC debuts by ranked fighters.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.