Alex Pereira battles first-time title challenger Magomed Ankalaev for the light heavyweight strap in the main event at UFC 313 on Saturday.
The pre-fight narrative: Pereira is carving out his legacy with another title defence against the well-rounded Akalaev. I’m picking the champ to retain his belt and also have a play on Jalin Turner.
Check out my UFC 313 predictions and the fight card for the March 8 event in Las Vegas.
UFC 313 predictions
Best bet: Pereira to win (-125)
This is drawn up to be a stylistic clash between striker and wrestler, and I like the striker here.
Ankalaev has a 20-1-1 MMA record but he hasn’t been dominant against the little top competition he’s faced.
The Russian has fought two fighters currently ranked inside the top five and won one bout by decision and drew the other.
He was down big in his bout with Jan Blachowicz before securing a dominant 10-8 fifth round and draw against the gassed Polish veteran.
Go to full UFC 313 betting markets
The worry here is Ankalaev taking down and controlling Pereira but I don’t have the same belief in his grappling as some might.
According to UFCstats.com, Ankalaev lands fewer than one takedown per 15 minutes at a 31% rate. He isn’t a dominant grappler by any means and a lot of this bout will be contested on the feet.
If he does get it to the mat, Ankalaev hasn’t proven himself as a finisher. He’s yet to record a submission victory in 13 UFC appearances.
Every round starts on the feet and Pereira stuffs takedowns at a 70% rate.
Key stat: Pereira lands 5.46 significant strikes per minute with 63% accuracy. He’s ended seven of his nine UFC wins by knockout.
UFC picks
Turner to win (+100): Turner has been at the wrong end of some bad luck over recent years but this is a good spot to back him as the underdog.
He is 1-3 over his last four fights but could easily be 4-0. Two of the losses were razor-thin split decisions.
The other was a bout against Renato Moicano where Turner scored a knockdown in the first round before allowing Moicano to come back in the second.
- Before the skid, he was on a five-fight win streak and now takes a step down in competition.
- This isn’t a shot at Bahamondes but he hasn’t fought anyone in the top 15 or even close to it.
- Turner is a staple in the lightweight rankings and his last three losses came against top 10 opponents.
This is exactly the matchup Turner needs to get back on track.
UFC 313 main card
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| Fighter | Odds | Weight class | Odds | Fighter |
| Alex Pereira (C) | -125 | Light heavyweight | +100 | Magomed Anaklaev (1) |
| Justin Gaethje (3) | +125 | Lightweight | -155 | Rafael Fiziev (11) |
| Jalin Turner (13) | +100 | Lightweight | -125 | Ignacio Bahamondes |
| Amanda Lemos (5) | +108 | Strawweight | -136 | Iasmine Lucindo (7) |
| King Green | +375 | Lightweight | -500 | Mauricio Ruffy |
UFC picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 03/05/25.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.