The Minnesota Timberwolves are back in the Western Conference finals for a second consecutive year, and this time they’ll face the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
The pregame narrative: OKC is a -360 favourite to win the series after going the distance with the Denver Nuggets in Round 2. The Thunder and Timberwolves split their season series, 2-2, winning once apiece at home and on the road.
Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 1 on May 20, featuring Jalen Williams and Donte DiVincenzo.
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Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions
Parlay: Timberwolves +11.5 | Williams over 4.5 assists | DiVincenzo over 1.5 threes (+340)
Timberwolves +11.5 (-225): Congrats on grinding out a seven-game series win, OKC. Your prize is one day of rest before the ravenous Timberwolves come to town.
Minnesota, which knocked out the Golden State Warriors in five games, will have a 5-1 advantage in terms of rest days entering the conference finals.
OKC is coming off a much tougher series, which includes three games played at Denver’s mile-high altitude since May 9.
- The Thunder are 2-7 ATS in their past nine games. The Timberwolves are 8-2 ATS in the postseason.
- Minnesota is 11-6 ATS as a road underdog this year, per Team Rankings.
- The T-Wolves are 3-0 ATS vs. OKC since February, winning two of those games straight up as underdogs. Also, they didn’t have Rudy Gobert or Julius Randle for any of those games.
NBA SGP legs
Williams over 4.5 assists (-122): I rode with Williams at this number in Game 7 against the Nuggets and he delivered, dishing seven assists in the victory.
He is now 9-2 against this prop in the playoffs, averaging 5.7 assists in those matchups.
During the regular season, J-Dub had 27 assists in four games against the Timberwolves, going 4-0 against this prop.
Williams bounced back as a scorer last time out, but he still only shot 37.5% from the field (23.7% from 3-point range) in the second round. Setting up teammates should remain a key element of his game.
DiVincenzo over 1.5 threes (-159): It’s been a rough postseason for DiVincenzo beyond the arc, but I still don’t think this is asking too much.
- Despite shooting just 25.0% from deep in the playoffs, DiVincenzo is 5-5 vs. this prop.
- He’s averaging 5.6 attempted 3s per game. That’s down from 7.1 3PA during the regular season, but it’s still a healthy volume for a number like this.
- OKC allowed 39.6 attempted 3s per game to Denver. That was the second-most of the eight teams in the conference semifinals.
Including the regular season and playoffs, DiVincenzo has cashed this bet in 53 of 72 games (73.6%). That includes a 2-for-7 showing beyond the arc in his lone matchup against the Thunder.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions made at 9:10 a.m. ET 05/19/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.