The Los Angeles Lakers aim to even their first-round playoff series against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night at Crypto.com Arena.
The pregame narrative: L.A.’s first playoff game in the Luka Doncic era didn’t go according to plan, putting the pressure on the home side tonight. I’m backing Doncic and LeBron James in this +400 SGP, along with an alt spread for the T-Wolves.
Check out my Timberwolves vs. Lakers first-round SGP predictions for Game 2 on April 22.
BOOST: Lakers -5.5, Luka 30+ points & LeBron 25+ points (+528, was +480). Bet now!
Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions
Parlay: Timberwolves +10.5 | Reid 2+ threes | Doncic 25+ points | LeBron 6+ assists (+400)
Timberwolves +10.5 (-245): The Lakers can hardly afford to go down 2-0. But even if they bounce back to secure a win tonight, I wouldn’t expect a blowout.
Minnesota is 25-17 on the road this season, posting a 10-5-0 ATS mark as road underdogs, per Team Rankings. I’ve added five points to the standard spread, which should be plenty of cushion.
The T-Wolves are 3-2 SU against the Lakers this year and have covered a +10.5 spread in each game.
L.A. lost by 22 in the series opener despite decent 3-point shooting (36.6%) and a +6 margin in free throw attempts. I can’t see the Lakers turning things around to the point where they get a blowout win of their own.
NBA SGP legs
Naz Reid 2+ threes (-155): Do I think Reid will go 6-for-9 from 3-point land again tonight? No, but canning a couple of 3s is a fair ask.
- Since the start of last year, Reid has 2+ threes in 8 of 9 matchups vs. L.A.
- In the 2024-25 regular season, Reid averaged 2.2 made 3s on a career-high 5.8 attempts.
L.A. isn’t putting much respect on Reid’s game. In the series opener, eight of Reid’s nine 3-point attempts were deemed “wide open,” which means at least six feet of separation from the closest defender.
Maybe the Lakers will close out a bit better in Game 2, but they’ll have to pick their poison. The Timberwolves have lots of capable shooters, which led them to the fourth-highest 3PT% this year (37.7).
I expect Reid to see enough open looks to cash this bet.
Doncic 25+ points (-335): The Lakers need to be better tonight in a lot of ways, but Doncic’s offensive effort isn’t one of them.
In his first playoff game wearing purple and gold, Doncic scored 37 points while shooting 5-for-10 from deep.
Dating back to the start of March, Doncic has 25-plus points in 17 of 22 games. He’s averaging 30.9 PPG in that span.
Doncic also has 25-plus points in 13 consecutive playoff games (dating back to last season).
Whatever the Lakers do on Tuesday, expect Doncic to remain a prominent figure on the offensive end.
LeBron 6+ assists (-220): LeBron was unusually quiet as a facilitator in Game 1, dishing just three assists in 36 minutes.
For an ageless superstar who averaged 8.2 assists this season, that feels like an anomaly.
The Lakers only had 15 assists in Game 1, which was their lowest total of the year. They need to get back to moving the ball more freely, and LeBron should be at the forefront of that adjustment.
In the regular season, LeBron had six or more assists in 58 of 70 games.
Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions made at 11:38 a.m. ET 04/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.