It’s do or die tonight when the Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers for Game 5 of the ALDS.
The pregame narrative: One team’s season will be over and the other will advance to the ALCS vs. the Toronto Blue Jays for a shot at the World Series. The home side will have to contend with arguably the best pitcher on the planet.
Check out my Tigers vs. Mariners picks for Friday’s elimination game, featuring predictions on starters Tarik Skubal and George Kirby.
Tigers vs. Mariners picks
Best bet: Skubal over 19.5 outs (-115)
This is an enormous line, especially when factoring in the stakes. But there’s no one I would rather have on the mound, and I’m sure the Tigers concur.
Let’s run through some stats to justify this aggressive selection:
- Skubal has made two postseason starts, clearing this line both times.
- He threw 7.2 innings in a wild-card start, allowing three hits, one run and striking out 14.
- In Game 2 of the ALDS, Skubal tossed 7.0 innings of two-run ball and struck out nine.
Though there’s little margin for error, the likelihood of Skubal getting hit hard and the Tigers riding their bullpen is slim.
Skubal had the lowest ERA (2.21) in the AL and was No. 1 in MLB in K% and BB%. He has the fifth-lowest HR/9 rate among starters over the last two years.
The southpaw rarely gets torched and is as close to a lock for six innings (18 outs) as it gets.
- Skubal allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of 31 starts in the regular season.
- The 2024 Cy Young winner went at least six innings in 23 outings and has reached that milestone in all five of his career postseason starts.
We need 6.2 innings out of Skubal, something he’s done 17 times this season (playoffs included).
Detroit has every reason to let him go as deep as possible. This series ends tonight and Skubal won’t be available for Games 1 or 2 of the ALCS in Toronto (Sunday, Monday).
Key stat: The elite lefty will take the mound at T-Mobile Park, the most pitcher-friendly stadium in MLB (per Baseball Savant).
MLB best bets
Kirby over 14.5 outs (-134): Seattle has an excellent bullpen, a group with swing and miss that doesn’t issue free passes. Factor in the pitching environment in an elimination game, and there’s a very real possibility that Kirby’s leash is short.
The club also has much better starting pitching than Detroit if it wanted to turn to a big SP and worry about its ALCS setup later.
But while Kirby isn’t Skubal, he’s not an afterthought.
- Kirby went five innings in Game 1, allowing two runs and striking out eight.
- He went five innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his final start of the regular season and punched out 10.
- In his two starts before that, he worked at least six frames and struck out a combined 17 batters.
- Kirby has enjoyed home cooking, pitching to a career 3.07 ERA at T-Mobile Park, where he has an OPS 100 points lower than his mark on the road.
Detroit’s offence struggled mightily down the stretch (24th in wRC+ in September), and has hit a pedestrian .218/.302/.331 in the postseason (78 wRC+).
Under 3.5 runs, first 5 innings (-148): I expect Skubal to dominate and think Kirby will be plenty good, too.
As such, this feels like a natural extension of that theme.
Both games in Seattle ended with a final score of 3-2. This five-inning under cashed both times.
Seattle has a strong bullpen, and possibly starters, available after Kirby. And its offence hasn’t been good, either.
The Mariners are hitting .219 with a .285 on-base percentage in the ALDS. While they’ve gone deep six times in four games, that power is unlikely to show vs. Skubal.
Tigers vs. Mariners picks made at 11:57 a.m. on 10/10/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.