The Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays settle their weekend series with Sunday’s rubber match.
The pregame narrative: The Blue Jays aim to keep pace in the AL East by scoring a series win over the best team in baseball. Detroit, meanwhile, has no choice but to continue its winning ways as the Minnesota Twins are surging behind them in the AL Central thanks to a 13-game winning streak.
A moneyline pick and an Addison Barger prop are featured in my +350 SGP Tigers vs. Blue Jays predictions for May 18.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays predictions
SGP: Blue Jays ML | Under 9.5 runs | Barger 1+ hits (+350)
Blue Jays ML (-120): Detroit has the best record in the major leagues, mainly because of its home domination.
The Tigers are an impressive 17-5 at Comerica Park, but a much less notable 13-11 as a visitor.
These struggles also extend to their starting pitcher today, Jackson Jobe. Jobe owns a 2.30 ERA at home this year, but that number balloons to 6.11 on the road.
His opposing hitter’s OPS also climbs significantly when his team is away. It’s a solid .647 at home, but it jumps to .835 on the road.
Jose Berrios, meanwhile, has been steady yet unspectacular. He combines a 4.33 ERA with a .788 opposing team OPS.
Bet on Toronto to close out this series with a win.
MLB SGP legs
Under 9.5 runs (-162): Berrios’ success against Tigers’ hitters is a big reason why this under should cash.
The former Twins hurler has accumulated 69 plate appearances against current Detroit batters, according to Baseball Savant. Berrios has held those batters to:
- .212 AVG
- .259 wOBA
- .332 xSLG
- .254 xwOBA
Although Jobe has struggled on the road, unfamiliarity should work in his favour on Sunday. No Blue Jays hitter has seen the young pitcher yet.
The Tigers can also feel confident that their bullpen can keep opposing bats at bay if needed. They are one of five MLB teams with a sub-3.00 bullpen ERA (2.98).
The under on this total cashed in the first two games of this series.
Barger 1+ hits (-157): This is a very fair line for somebody producing like Barger.
The Blue Jays’ utility man has been one of the team’s best hitters.
Here’s how he’s performed across the last 10 games:
- .353 AVG
- .405 OBP
- .647 SLG
All of this production is no fluke, either. He’s produced above-average numbers in:
- xwOBA (.363)
- xBA (.291)
- xSLG (.495)
Barger has recorded a hit in seven of his last 10 games, totalling 12 knocks.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays predictions made at 10:06 a.m. ET on 05/18/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.