The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Minnesota Timberwolves in a potential Western Conference playoff preview.
The pregame narrative: Minnesota easily disposed of Oklahoma City before the NBA All-Star break, but I expect the Thunder to return the favour. Additionally, I’m taking the under on the game total and Mike Conley’s points prop to round out this ticket.
Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 23.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions
Parlay: Thunder -11.5 | Under 226.5 points | Conley under 9.5 points (+475)
Thunder -11.5 (+118): Minnesota dominated OKC to the tune of a 116-101 victory before the pause, but there are several reasons why I’m backing the latter on a teased-up spread.
Firstly, that loss snapped a seven-game streak where the Thunder won each game by 12-plus points. Oklahoma City then earned a 130-107 over the Utah Jazz after returning from the All-Star break.
Secondly, this is a battle of teams at different ends of the ATS win rate spectrum. The Thunder boast the second-best against-the-spread win percentage (63.5%) while the Timberwolves rank 25th (42.9%).
Lastly, Minnesota has been especially bad at home. It’s a mediocre 15-13 straight-up and a disappointing 9-19-1 ATS.
SGP legs
Under 226.5 points (+108): Both these teams feature stout defences that should keep this total below the number.
The two combined for 117 points in their most recent outing which marked the second time this campaign that they fell below this number.
Opposing squads have struggled to muster much against the Thunder’s suffocating defence. They’re ceding the fewest points per game (104.9).
It’s difficult to pick out a weakness in OKC’s defence. The Thunder are surrendering the fewest fast-break points per game (12.1) and points in the paint per contest (42.9).
The Timberwolves aren’t too far back, allowing the fifth-fewest points per contest (108.3). Minnesota’s defensive strength is tied to its slow pace as it ranks 25th in pace (97.90) this season.
Conley under 9.5 points (-134): This pick ties in nicely with my first two selections.
Conley is an inconsistent scorer who doesn’t usurp this mark all that often. He has gone below 9.5 points in 13 of his last 17 outings and is only averaging 8.2 points per game.
An above-average performance against the Thunder seems unlikely. OKC is allowing the fewest points per game to opposing point guards (21.76).
Conley’s usage is worth monitoring, too. He played 23:59 in his most recent outing, which was his first game back from a four-game absence.
Picks made at 10:33 a.m. ET on 02/22/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.