After struggling on offence in Games 1 and 2 of the Western Conference finals, the Minnesota Timberwolves look to flip the script at home on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: Minnesota is down 2-0 thanks in large part to the efforts of Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s been finding all sorts of ways to score. The T-wolves need someone to step up, and Jaden McDaniels has proven he’s up for the task.
Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks on SGA and McDaniels for Game 3 on May 24.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks
Best Bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points (-124)
SGA is the only player in the world right now who’s worth this high of a points prop.
Based on what he’s shown so far in this series — and in the season as a whole, frankly — I’m content to ride with the over.
- Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a 38-point effort in Game 2. He had 31 points against the Timberwolves in the series opener.
- In his past 10 playoff games, SGA is averaging 31.5 PPG. He’s 6-4 vs. this scoring line, landing on exactly 31 points in two of the shortcomings.
- He averaged an NBA-high 32.7 PPG during the regular season.
Gilgeous-Alexander has a 35.5% usage rate so far in this series, which is easily the highest of all players. He has nine more field-goal attempts (48) and 12 more free-throw attempts (29) than anyone else.
The Thunder are leaning heavily on their recently-anointed MVP, and can you blame them?
I can’t, and I don’t expect them to change that strategy. Game 3 has a 2.5-point spread in OKC’s favour, so it should be a tight game that requires another star effort from the Hamilton, Ontario native.
When he last played in Minnesota on Feb. 23, SGA had 37 points.
In six matchups against the T-wolves this year, he’s averaging 34.8 PPG. And he had at least 20 field-goal attempts and nine free-throw attempts in each of those matchups.
Key stat: Dating back to last year, Gilgeous-Alexander has 30-plus points in 14 of his past 18 playoff games.
Game 3 prop predictions
McDaniels over 12.5 points (-130): McDaniels provided a much-needed spark from the 3-point line in Game 2, going 4-for-8 from deep. The rest of the team shot just 22.6%.
That was part of a 22-point night for McDaniels, who should be well-positioned to thrive at home on Saturday.
- In five games at Target Center this postseason, McDaniels is 4-1 vs. this line while averaging 17.6 PPG.
- In his past five games against the Thunder, McDaniels has averaged 18.8 PPG. He cashed this bet in both regular season matchups at home vs. OKC.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 8:05 a.m. ET 05/24/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.