Friday’s NBA Finals matchup in Indianapolis will shape the rest of the series.
The pregame narrative: Either the Indiana Pacers will take a commanding 3-1 lead, or the Oklahoma City Thunder will regain home-court advantage in a best-of-three. The odds suggest it will be the latter, as OKC is favoured by 6.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
I’m targeting Pascal Siakam and Alex Caruso in my Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks for June 13.
Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks
Best bet: Siakam over 27.5 points/rebounds (-108)
Siakam isn’t quite playing at the level that won him Eastern Conference finals MVP, but I think there’s plenty of room to grow.
He had his best outing of the series in Game 3, finishing with 21 points and six rebounds while shooting 57.1% from the field.
And that shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering he’s been dynamite at home this postseason:
- Home (9 GP): 21.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 56.7 FG%
- Away (10 GP): 19.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 48.7 FG%
Siakam is averaging 24.2 points and 5.2 rebounds across his last five home games. In those contests, he went 2-3 against this line but landed on exactly 27 points and rebounds twice.
OKC is a great defensive team, but I’ll still ride with Siakam, who is shooting the lights out at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
The Thunder are also soft on the glass, ranking 11th out of 16 playoff teams in rebounding rate.
Key stat: Siakam has scored 20-plus points in three straight home games vs. OKC.
Game 4 prop prediction
Caruso over 1.5 threes (+105): OKC is good enough that this isn’t a “must-win” game, but it’ll still want to leave no doubt. I expect Mark Daigneault to give his starters plenty of run, with the exception of sophomore Cason Wallace.
The 21-year-old guard is in a timeshare with Caruso, which has begun to swing in the veteran’s favour.
- Caruso played four more minutes than Wallace in Game 2 and nine more minutes than Wallace in Game 3.
- He shot a combined 6-for-10 from deep in those games, clearing this line both times.
Caruso is shooting 43.0% from deep this postseason, and is 9-6 against this line in his last 15 games.
Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks made at 10:42 a.m. ET 06/12/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.