For the first time since their seven-game playoff series last spring, the Oklahoma City Thunder tangle with the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night.
The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic is healthy again, which is great news for a Denver squad that impressively held serve in his absence. The Nuggets are in second in the Western Conference, merely 5.0 games behind a Thunder team that has been uncharacteristically shaky in recent weeks.
Check out my Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Feb. 1, featuring Jokic and Isaiah Hartenstein.
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Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP
Parlay: Nuggets +5.5 | Jokic 35+ points/rebounds | Hartenstein 6+ rebounds (+310)
Nuggets +5.5 (+123): I’m a bit surprised to see the Nuggets laying 7.5 points at home tonight, and it’s nice to be able to tease this into a plus-money territory while leaving some cushion.
Aaron Gordon is out, but Jokic’s return more than makes up for that.
And it’s not like the Thunder have been playing defending-champion-calibre hoops lately.
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OKC is 2-5 ATS in its past seven games, with four outright losses as a favourite in that span. That includes home losses against the Pacers and Raptors while laying double-digit spreads.
The Nuggets went 7-3 ATS vs. the Thunder last year, and they covered a +5.5 spread in all four home games. Denver also just dominated a red-hot Los Angeles Clippers squad (122-109 win) last time out.
NBA SGP legs
Jokic 35+ points/rebounds (-162): After a month on the shelf with a knee injury, Jokic made a triumphant return for Denver on Friday.
Here’s what he accomplished in just 24:32 of game time:
- 31 points
- 12 rebounds
- 5 assists
- 8-of-11 shooting
- 13-of-17 free-throw shooting
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Jokic’s shot volume isn’t always high, but he’s an expert at doing more with less. His 60.8/43.9/84.7 shooting splits speak for themselves.
OKC has allowed the sixth-most rebounds per game this season, so that’s another area in which the 284-pound centre should have an impact.
Jokic is 23-10 vs. this prop this season, and he went 8-2 vs. this prop when facing the Thunder last year.
Hartenstein 6+ rebounds (-335): Like Jokic, Hartenstein is only one game removed from a lengthy injury absence. He came off the bench in his return and will require some ramp-up time, but this rebounding milestone should be a safe play.
The ex-Knick is 23-2 vs. this prop. The only unders came in the game when he got hurt and his first game back.
Last time out, Hartenstein grabbed five rebounds in 18 minutes. He typically averages 10.2 rebounds in 26.5 minutes. A modest uptick in his time on the court should translate to at least one additional rebound.
In nine matchups vs. Denver last year, Hartenstein went 9-0 vs. this prop and averaged 8.8 RPG.
Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions made at 1 p.m. on Feb. 1, 2026.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.