Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets look to defend home court on Thursday night and push this second-round series to a Game 7.
The pregame narrative: Jokic dropped 44 points last time out, but his Nuggets came up short on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC (-139) is now the odds-on favourite to win the NBA Finals.
I’m backing Jokic and Thunder big man Isaiah Hartenstein in my Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks for Game 6 on May 15.
Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks
Best Bet: Jokic over 28.5 points (-118)
Jokic is everything to the Nuggets, and with their season on the line, I expect him to have a huge night.
At 30.0 points, 14.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists, Jokic is leading Denver in all major statistical categories this series. He’s even the steals leader (2.0/game).
I’m focused on the scoring aspect, though, because I think this is a more palatable number than the overs on some of his other markets.
It’s a simplified stance, but I definitely expect Jokic to be more ball-dominant than usual in a do-or-die game.
Look at Jokic’s deployment in each of the past three games:
- 42+ minutes
- 22+ shot attempts
- 7+ attempted 3s
Jokic hadn’t played that many minutes in three straight games at any other point in the season. And he hadn’t attempted 22-plus shots in three straight since early December.
It should surprise no one that this three-time MVP is putting his team on his back again.
Jokic has only gone over 28.5 points in four of 12 playoff games. But two of those were 40-plus-point efforts against the Thunder — including a 44-point night in Game 5.
I think the dire circumstances will push Jokic to another hefty point total on Thursday.
Key stat: Jokic has cashed this bet in 36 of 82 games this year (playoffs included). He averaged a career-high 29.6 PPG during the regular season.
Game 6 prop prediction
Hartenstein over 20.5 points/rebounds (-125): He’s not the star of the show in OKC (far from it, actually), but Hartenstein is doing what is asked of him this postseason.
Simply put, he’s a big body who produces a solid rebounding output and some relatively efficient shooting.
And he’s been excellently reliable against this line.
- Hartenstein is averaging 10.6 points and 9.2 rebounds this postseason. He is 6-3 against this prop.
- Against the Nuggets in particular, Hartenstein has averaged 22.1 PR in seven matchups on the year, going 6-1 against this prop.
The 7-feet, 255-pound centre is unlikely to have a huge night as a scorer. But he’s a consistent double-double threat, and his high floor as a rebounder has yielded great success in this prop market.
Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 4:08 p.m. ET 05/14/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.