The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets meet in an elimination game at altitude on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: OKC is one win away from its first conference championship in the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander era. Denver is 18-6 at home in the playoffs over the last three seasons but is an underdog to force a winner-take-all Game 7.
Check out my Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for May 15, featuring Nikola Jokic and Chet Holmgren.
Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions
Parlay: Thunder moneyline | Holmgren double-double | Jokic 2+ threes (+440)
Thunder moneyline (-195): Denver is never a pushover at home, but I expect OKC’s depth to come through in a tightly-contested game.
SGA and Jokic tend to cancel each other out, and the Thunder are getting a lot more out of their secondary players:
- OKC bench: 34.3 PPG (5th in playoffs)
- DEN bench: 20.0 PPG (13th in playoffs)
The Thunder are 33-8 straight up as road favourites this year, winning those games by an average of 9.9 points. They also had the best road net rating (+10.5) during the regular season.
NBA SGP legs
Holmgren double-double (+125): This leg really boosts the SGP’s value. Outside of Game 1, where he finished with 12 points and six rebounds, Holmgren has hit or threatened this line every night.
- Holmgren is averaging a double-double this series (13.4 points, 10.8 rebounds), cashing this bet in Games 2 and 3.
- He had eight points and 13 rebounds in Game 4 and 14 points and eight rebounds in Game 5.
Nabbing 10 points shouldn’t be a problem for Holmgren. He’s done that in 13 of his last 14 games and is -420 to reach the milestone on Thursday.
The 7-foot-1 power forward is averaging 12.0 rebounds in his last four games, and I expect another strong effort on the glass tonight.
Jokic 2+ threes (-162): Jokic is going to eat up massive minutes and take a ton of shots tonight — that’s a given. Just take a look at what the three-time MVP has done since Game 2:
- Game 3: 20 points (0-for-10 from deep), 44 minutes
- Game 4: 27 points (2-for-8 from deep), 43 minutes
- Game 5: 44 points (5-of-7 from deep), 44 minutes
If we get anywhere near that type of 3-point volume again, this should be a cinch. Jokic is 4-1 against this line vs. OKC and is coming off his best regular season on the perimeter.
He averaged 2.0 makes on 4.7 attempts (41.7%) from deep.
Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions made at 9:10 a.m. ET 05/15/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.