I’m looking for Ja Morant to have a game as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies’ first-round series shifts locations.
The pregame narrative: Memphis got rocked in the first two games. But on the road, that was expected. Morant has been shooting with volume, and I expect him to have a game at FedExForum. On the other end, back Chet Holmgren to can a pair of 3s.
Check out my Thunder vs. Grizzlies prop picks for Game 3 of the opening round.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies prop picks
Best Bet: Morant over 24.5 points (-130)
Morant has fallen short of this line in both games so far.
- Game 1: 17 points (6-of-17 shooting)
- Game 2: 23 points (10-of-25 shooting)
That’s not great, and neither is shooting 38.1% from the field. But I’m loving Morant’s shot volume and expect him to let it fly again tonight.
The two-time all-star closed his season on a tear, averaging 29.4 points and 21.9 field-goal attempts across his last 15 games. He cleared this line 12 times and scored 20-plus points in every contest.
OKC is a nightmare matchup, and there’s no hiding that.
The Thunder allowed the second-fewest PPG to opposing point guards (22.86) and had the league’s best defensive rating (106.6) during the regular season.
But Morant should get a ton of run while facing the prospect of going down 3-0 on Thursday. He only played 26 minutes in a blowout in Game 1 and had 40 minutes in Game 2, which was also a rout.
The 9.5-point spread also indicates this should be a closer contest.
Key stat: Morant has taken the second-most shots per game (21.6) since March 1.
Game 3 prop prediction
Holmgren over 1.5 threes (-130): Holmgren is a do-it-all big man, and that extends to his 3-point shooting.
The 7-foot-1 power forward is 6-for-12 from deep this series, canning three 3s in each game.
Holmgren is 5-1 against this line in his last six games dating back to the regular season while shooting 56.1% from 3-point range.
The Grizzlies allowed the fourth-most 3s per game to opposing power forwards this season.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies prop picks made at 11:37 a.m. ET 04/24/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.