On the latter half of a back-to-back, the Los Angeles Clippers host the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
The latest: OKC is off to a 7-0 start and is favoured to stay perfect. L.A., meanwhile, is on a four-game ATS losing streak — with two of those losses coming straight up as the favourite.
See how Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and James Harden are featured in my Thunder vs. Clippers picks for Tuesday, Nov. 4.
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Thunder vs. Clippers picks
Best bet: Holmgren over 1.5 threes (-154)
While Victor Wembanyama has opted to play in the paint a lot more this season, there’s a lanky big man in Oklahoma City who’s taking the opposite approach.
It’s only been four games, but 7-foot-1 centre Chet Holmgren has bumped up his 3-point shot volume for the Thunder.
- After averaging 3.6 attempted 3s last season, Holmgren has attempted 5+ threes in every game so far.
- He’s shooting it well from deep, going 10-for-24 (41.7%) and cashing this bet in three of four games.
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It seems counterintuitive for a big man to spend so much time on the outside, but Holmgren has the scoring touch to justify the move.
And if the shot volume stays roughly where it is, asking for a pair of 3s on any given night won’t seem unreasonable.
Holmgren attempts 39% of his shots from 3-point range, per Cleaning The Glass, which ranks in the 78th percentile in the league. He’s one of nine Thunder players averaging more than 4.0 attempted 3s, so it’s clearly a team-wide directive.
After missing the past three games due to a back injury, Holmgren did not appear on Tuesday’s injury report. He should be good to go in an encouraging matchup.
Key stat: The Clippers allow the fifth-most attempted 3s and the fifth-highest 3PT% in the NBA.
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More OKC vs. L.A. props
Hartenstein over 19.5 points/rebounds (-130): This line seems a bit low to me, as Hartenstein and Holmgren have proven they can both thrive on the floor together.
- Hartenstein has 85 points/rebounds across four starts when Holmgren played this season. That equates to 21.3 PR per game.
- In his past five games, Hartenstein is 4-1 vs. this prop while averaging 13.0 points and 11.6 rebounds.
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OKC won its past two games by a combined 50 points, and Hartenstein played fewer than 26 minutes in both blowouts — but he still cashed this PR line both times.
Ideally, tonight’s matchup is a bit tighter, and Hartenstein plays more in his typical sum of minutes (around 30). The Thunder are 8-point road favourites at Intuit Dome.
In his first year with OKC last season, Hartenstein went 2-0 vs. this prop when facing the Clippers.
Harden over 7.5 assists (-130): Harden had a great night last night for the Clips, scoring 29 points with 6-of-10 shooting from 3-point range.
And he still found time to dish out eight assists, too.
- The well-beared point guard is now 4-2 vs. this prop, tallying seven assists in one of the outlier games.
- OKC is a stout defensive squad that has allowed the second-fewest assists per game this season, but I’m not sure the team can do enough to slow Harden down. He had 17 assists in two matchups vs. the Thunder last year and cashed this bet both times.
Harden is giving himself plenty of opportunities to rack up assists, evidenced by his 14.3 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot) per game. That’s the seventh-most potential APG in the league.
Thunder vs. Clippers picks made at 2 p.m. ET on 11/04/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.