The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs clash in a Saturday afternoon showdown at Arrowhead Stadium.
The pregame narrative: I believe a menacing Houston defence will continue to find success, and that has me taking the Texans on an alt-spread. Prop bets on Joe Mixon and Xavier Worthy round out this +320 SGP.
Check out my Texans vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions for Saturday.
Texans vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Texans +8.5 + Mixon over 19.5 receiving yards + Worthy over 38.5 receiving yards (+320)
Texans +8.5 (-235): There are plenty of good reasons to take the alt-spread on Houston here.
Despite sustaining a high ankle injury on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes is cleared to play for the Chiefs. I can’t imagine he will perform anywhere near his peak.
Sure, Kansas City has a league-best 13-1 record but it isn’t winning games convincingly and Houston has one of the best defences in football.
- Kansas City is 6-8 ATS and only 3/13 wins came by more than eight points.
- Houston has covered +8.5 in 13/14 games while ranking third in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per play.
- Since debuting in the NFL last season, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is 8-4 ATS as an underdog.
Furthermore, the Texans’ pass rush — ranked second in sacks (averaging 3.2 per game) — should give the immobile Mahomes tons of problems in the pocket.
Given the injury situation and the Chiefs’ tendency to win by tight margins, teasing the Texans through a few key numbers is a solid play.
Other parlay picks
Mixon over 19.5 receiving yards (-167): Since the injury to receiver Stefon Diggs, Houston’s running back has been more involved in the passing game.
- Mixon has 20+ receiving yards in four of his last five games, averaging 32.4 yards in that span.
- The running back has seen at least four targets in five straight games.
The Chiefs’ front seven has stifled opposing backs to a league-best 62.2 rushing yards per game. I expect Mixon to get some targets with the Houston likely playing from behind.
Worthy over 38.5 receiving yards (-115): The Chiefs are making a concerted effort to give the ball more to its 2024 first-round pick.
- Worthy has gone over this mark in five straight games, averaging 49.5 receiving yards in that span.
- He was on the field for over 80 percent of plays in back-to-back games (most among Chiefs wideouts).
- Worthy is coming off a career-high six catches on 11 targets for 46 yards.
He gets a favourable matchup in Houston, which gives up 155.1 receiving yards on average to wide receivers per CBS Sports.
With Mahomes dealing with a bad ankle, I expect Andy Reid to stir up more screenplays for the speedy wideout.
Picks made at 1:12 p.m. on 12/19/24.
