The top two ranked players on the ATP Tour are in action early Tuesday morning.
The pre-match narrative: Carlos Alcaraz looks to add another trophy to his cabinet in what has been an incredible season. He’ll need to beat top-five player Taylor Fritz to earn the win in Tokyo. In Beijing, Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur compete in an electric semifinal.
Check out my top tennis predictions for the Sept. 30 matches at the China Open and Japan Open.
Tennis predictions: Japan Open, Sept. 30
Best bet: Fritz +1.5 sets (+120)
The American is seasoned on hard courts. He played 40 matches on the surface this year, amassing a 30-10 record.
He most recently played Alcaraz at the Laver Cup on Sept. 20 and won the match triumphantly in straight sets. He also took on the Spaniard at Wimbledon and lost, but still managed to win a set.
Fritz is 8-2 in his last 10 and beat his counterpart less than 10 days ago on a similar playing surface. He deserves consideration as a big underdog here.
Alcaraz has played one top-15 player at this event (Casper Ruud in the semifinal) and needed all three sets to pick up the victory.
The world No. 1 converted just two of his nine break points in that match.
Key stat: Fritz has the better service hold percentage at the Tokyo Open (89%).
China Open best bet: Sinner vs. de Minaur
Over 19.5 games (-124): There are some real advantages on the side of Sinner, but this line is too low.
- Firstly, the Italian is 10-0 against de Minaur in his career, winning nine of 10 matches in straight sets.
- Sinner’s 21-2 on hard courts this season and nine of those matches played between these two were contested on some variation of a hard court surface.
With all that being said, de Minaur cannot be discredited. He’s No. 8 in the world right now and holds a solid 26-8 record on hard courts.
The Australian has been just as dominant at the China Open and has played an hour less of tennis at this event, which implies a stamina advantage.
This is his preferred playing surface. He should be able to hold enough service points to push this match over this very modest total.
It’s hardly a fade against Sinner, who can still win this match comfortably in two sets. He simply can’t blow his opponent out.
Tennis predictions made at 11:03 a.m. on 09/29/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.