The Bill Belichick era in Chapel Hill begins on Monday night, as the North Carolina Tar Heels host the TCU Horned Frogs.
The pregame narrative: Belichick, a six-time Super Bowl champion as an NFL head coach, has never coached at any collegiate level. He takes over a North Carolina program that went 6-7 last season and is a 3.5-point home underdog in its season opener.
Check out my TCU vs. North Carolina prop picks for the Week 1 matchup on Sept. 1, featuring Gio Lopez and Eric McAlister.
TCU vs. North Carolina prop picks
Best Bet: Lopez over 32.5 rushing yards (-120)
Just because it wasn’t Tom Brady’s style, who says Belichick can’t work with a mobile quarterback?
I wouldn’t go as far as to say Lopez is a running quarterback, but at 6 feet and 203 pounds, he definitely moves well.
And his willingness to scramble was evident in his 11 starts last year as a redshirt freshman:
- 463 rushing yards
- 7 rushing TDs
- 25+ yards in 9 of 11 games
- 7+ carries in 8 of 11 games
Lopez spent his first two collegiate seasons at South Alabama, and he didn’t opt to transfer until after the Jaguars’ spring game in April. ESPN reported that Lopez will receive $4 million over a two-year contract with the Tar Heels.
Given that Belichick already had three quarterbacks on the UNC roster in the spring, it’s noteworthy that he went into the portal to get his starter.
Last year, Lopez ranked 22nd in NCAA Division I in total offence per game (274.7 yards). The Tar Heels will need a spark in the ground game after Omarion Hampton graduated to the NFL.
TCU struggled against the run last year, ranking 116th among 134 D-I schools in EPA per rush, according to Game On Paper.
Key stat: Lopez averaged 42.1 rushing yards per game last season. He went 7-4 vs. this line.
Quick picks
McAlister over 68.5 receiving yards (-118): McAlister was way down the Horned Frogs’ depth chart last year, but it seems like now is his time to shine.
TCU’s top three receivers combined for 179 receptions last year, and all three of them have moved on to the NFL (two on active rosters, one on a practice squad).
McAlister, now a senior, flashed his big-play ability with 39 catches for 762 yards. In three D-I seasons, he’s averaged 19.5 yards per catch.
I think the 6-foot-3 wideout will see a notable uptick in volume as the top returnee for quarterback Josh Hoover. But it may only take a few catches for McAlister to cash this.
Hoover had a great year for TCU in 2024, throwing for 250+ yards in 11 of 13 games. The pre-existing connection between him and McAlister is a definite plus.
Picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET 09/01/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.