The Super Bowl is quickly approaching and I’m sharing my best bets for the Big Game.
The pregame narrative: Patrick Mahomes will be the centre of attention as he looks to complete the three-peat. Two prop picks on the Chiefs’ quarterback headline my five favourite Super Bowl 59 bets.
Check out my Super Bowl best bets below.
Super Bowl best bets
- Full Super Bowl Markets
- Super Bowl 59 Injury Report
- Kansas City Chiefs Team Stats
- Philadelphia Eagles Team Stats
Best bet: Mahomes under 251.5 passing yards (-114)
Betting against Mahomes in the Super Bowl feels like treason but the quarterback can still be productive while finishing below this mark.
The reigning SB MVP has fallen short of this yardage total in both playoff games and in four of the past six contests dating back to Dec. 8.
Philly provides the toughest matchup in the NFL, allowing the fewest passing yards per game (174.2). The side has held 15-of-20 starting QBs to less than 252 passing yards this season.
Even if the Chiefs win, my prediction would be that it’s off the back of the defence that has carried them all year.
Key stat: At Super Bowl 57, Mahomes threw for 182 yards in the Chiefs’ 38-35 victory over the Eagles.
Quick Picks
Mahomes anytime TD scorer (+340): To continue with Mahomes, I’m backing him to score a TD.
When the playoffs roll around, the QB is more inclined to use his legs.
- Mahomes set season-highs in back-to-back weeks, rushing seven times against the Texans before exploding for 11 rushes and two rushing TDs against the Bills in the conference championship.
- The star QB has seven rushing TDs in 20 career playoff games compared to 14 in 112 regular season games.
Additionally, the Eagles’ first-ranked pass defence may force Mahomes out of the pocket more than he’s used to.
Under 49 points (-110): This is the most boring of my bets but some quality data is backing the under.
Each team has an elite defence:
- KC ranks 4th in scoring (19.2) and allowed the 8th-fewest yards per game (335.4).
- Philly ranks 2nd in scoring (17.8) and allowed the fewest yards per game (296.3).
Even though this game is loaded with offensive talent, it has been the defence that has shined all year for the two Super Bowl finalists.
Including the playoffs, the Chiefs and Eagles combine to have an over/under record of 17-22, per Team Rankings.
Either team to attempt a two-point conversion (+110): This is the Super Bowl so there shouldn’t be any hesitation from both teams to attempt a two-point conversion when the math makes sense.
The AFC and NFC championship games had an attempted two-point conversion with both Philly and KC converting against their respective opponents.
At Super Bowl 57, Jalen Hurts converted a two-point attempt to tie the game 35-35. The Eagles went on to lose on a Harrison Butker game-winning field goal.
Back the run game
Pacheco over 20.5 rushing yards (-115): I know Isaiah Pacheco has lost a lot of his work to Kareem Hunt but this is a very modest total for a player who should still be involved.
Pacheco had five carries in both the divisional game and the NFC championship but that’d still be enough to surpass this total with one big gain.
The running back’s been banged up this season, missing nine weeks with a leg injury before grabbing a rib injury late in the season.
Although the ribs haven’t forced Pacheco to miss any time, it explains the fall off in production over the previous weeks.
Before recording 18 yards on Christmas Day against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Pacheco rushed for 21-plus yards in six straight games.
With the extra week of rest, I suspect Pacheco will receive much closer to his normal workload on Feb. 9. He averages 4.5 yards per carry for his career.
NFL picks made at 3:12 p.m. on 01/30/25.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.