The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets begin their second-round series on Wednesday night.
The pregame narrative: Both teams are playing with house money after mounting improbable third-period comebacks in their respective Game 7s. Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck is freed up and will need to be sharp to best Dallas, which may be getting Jason Robertson (game-time decision) back.
Check out my Stars vs. Jets prop picks on Matt Duchene and Kyle Connor for Game 1 on May 7.
Stars vs. Jets picks
Best bet: Duchene to not record a point (-132)
Before we get into the picks, let’s contextualize how unlikely this matchup is.
There have only been five instances of a multi-goal comeback in Game 7 in NHL history, and two occurred in the last week.
None were as crazy as what happened in Winnipeg — the Jets erased a 3-1 deficit with two minutes left, scoring the game-tying goal with mere seconds to play before winning in double overtime.
Hellebuyck turned away all 13 shots faced in the third period and overtime. The soon-to-be Vezina winner had this to say postgame: “The weight of the world is off my shoulders … and that had nothing to do with anyone else. It’s just the mental grind of that series.”
That’s my long-winded way of saying I think Hellebuyck is back, which is why I’m fading Duchene.
Hellebuyck posted a 2.01 GAA (best in the NHL) and .925 SV% (second-best) during the regular season.
Duchene had some key contributions in Game 7 but was still held off the stat sheet in five games, including all three on the road.
Key stat: Hellebuyck owned a 1.01 GAA and .965 SV% in four starts against Dallas this year. Duchene was held pointless in each game.
Game 1 prop prediction
Connor over 3.5 shots (+120): Connor built off his spectacular regular season by going berserk in Round 1. He led the Jets in all of the following stats:
- Goals (4)
- Assists (8)
- Shots (22)
- Chances (45)
The American-born winger only cleared this line in two games, but he turned in a seven-shot performance in Game 7.
Dallas was missing its defensive lynchpin, Miro Heiskanen, in the opening round. The Finn has been ruled out for Game 1, too.
Without Heiskanen, the Stars gave up the most chances (73.8) and the second-most shots (31.65) on a 60-minute basis, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Connor averaged 3.25 shots per game during the regular season.
Stars vs. Jets prop picks made at 2:42 p.m. ET 05/07/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.