Jannik Sinner is searching for his second consecutive Australian Open title, but Alexander Zverev stands in his way.
The pregame narrative: Playing on the side of the Aussie Open bracket that also featured Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, not many had Zverev advancing to the final. A buzzsaw stands in his way, however, and I’m backing Sinner to win convincingly.
Check out my Sinner vs. Zverev predictions for the men’s final on Jan. 26.
Sinner vs. Zverev Australian Open men’s final predictions
Go to full Sinner vs. Zverev betting markets.
Best Bet: Zverev under 12.5 aces (-112)
There are several reasons why I think this is too high of a total for Zverev.
The first is that I expect Sinner to win in four sets or fewer. Zverev likely doesn’t tally many aces in a quick match where he doesn’t win.
Secondly, Zverev hasn’t beaten this number with any sort of consistency at this tourney.
Here are his aces totals in his six matches:
- 18 vs. Lucas Pouille
- 8 vs. Pedro Martinez
- 7 vs. Jacob Fearnley
- 19 vs. Ugo Humbert
- 7 vs. Tommy Paul
- 8 vs. Novak Djokovic (retired)
He has failed to top this mark in four of six contests thus far.
Earning aces against Sinner is a tall task for anybody, even an elite server in Zverev.
The Italian has the second-best return rating among all ATP players on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, according to ATPTour.com.
Sinner’s most recent match is a good example of how he can neutralize a top-tier service. He held the heavy-handed Ben Shelton to seven aces in a straight-sets victory.
Don’t expect a standout service performance from Zverev in this contest.
Key stat: Sinner has conceded just 42 aces in his six matches in Melbourne (seven per match).
Quick pick
Sinner -1.5 sets (-141): There’s a decent amount of juice to pay for this wager, but it’s worth the squeeze.
Sinner has been very good against this line at Grand Slam events. He’s covered it in all six matches at the Australian Open and each of his last 13 dating back to last year’s US Open.
Zverev historically has been a thorn in Sinner’s side, taking four of their six meetings, but only one of those matches has occurred since 2024. Sinner did win that match, besting Zverev in three sets at the Western and Southern Open.
Sinner is a much-improved player since earlier meetings with Zverev. I don’t put much stock into previous results, and expect him to continue cruising down under.
Picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET on 01/25/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.