Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner meet for a must-see French Open final between the two best in the game.
Today’s French Open narrative: La Coupe des Mousquetaires is on the line in a highly anticipated winner-takes-all contest. Sinner aims for revenge after losing at home in the Italian Open final, while Alcaraz looks to continue padding his already impressive resume.
Check out our Sinner vs. Alcaraz odds and my best bet for the June 8 men’s final.
Sinner vs. Alcaraz odds
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| Sinner vs. Alcaraz markets | Betting odds |
| Sinner to win | -109 |
| Alcaraz to win | -103 |
| Sinner -1.5 sets | +195 |
| Alcaraz -1.5 sets | +180 |
| Sinner -1.5 games | +112 |
| Alcaraz -1.5 games | +120 |
| Over 40.5 games | -108 |
| Under 40.5 games | -108 |
French Open odds as of 12:19 p.m. on 06/07/2025.
Best men’s final tennis pick
Best Bet: Alcaraz to win (-103)
Betting Alcaraz as a slight underdog is something I will gladly do at any opportunity.
The Spaniard is having a truly incredible clay-court season. Alcaraz is an otherworldly 21-1 on clay this year, a record that includes a victory over Sinner at Rome.
Sinner has bounced back exceedingly well since his straight-sets loss in the Italian Open final. He has won all six of his French Open matches in straight sets, including his semifinal contest against tennis legend Novak Djokovic.
Figuring out Alcaraz, however, has been a difficult challenge for Sinner. The Italian has won just four of their 12 head-to-head showdowns, and none of the last four between the two.
Alcaraz’s return skills on clay make him the best on this surface. Here’s how he ranks in several key categories across the last 52 weeks on clay:
- 1st in return games won percentage (39.4%)
- 2nd in second serve return points won percentage (57.3%)
- 2nd in first serve return points won percentage (38.7%)
He’s also been sensational in his career at Roland Garros. Aside from being the defending champ, he’s an excellent 18-3 lifetime at the tournament.
A concern I had for Sinner in his Italian Open final was how he would be able to physically hold up against an extremely fit Alcaraz after coming back from suspension. In that match, Alcaraz pushed Sinner to the limit in the first set, and the latter had nothing more to give.
Fast forward to the French Open final, and Sinner still hasn’t played a match longer than three sets.
Alcaraz will likely take Sinner into deep waters once again. I’m still skeptical of his chances of holding up against the game’s very best.
Back Alcaraz as a slight underdog at Roland Garros.
Key stat: Alcaraz is 2-1 against Sinner at Grand Slam events, including a five-set victory at the 2024 French Open.
French Open predictions made at 12:51 p.m. on 06/07/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.